http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=mlb_draftThursday, May 20, 2010
The ongoing debate: Prep vs. College
It's discussed at length every spring leading up to the June draft -- Prep vs. College. And there really is no right answer. It tends to depend on the strengths of that particular class of talent. This year the depth is in the prep pitching, but that doesn't mean the high school players will dominate the list of names called early on June 7.
Thanks to the research by Chris Crawford at Prospect Insider, we know that 35 high school players drafted in the first round between 2001 and 2006 are currently on an active MLB roster, or would be if it weren't for a stay on the 15-day disabled list. (Those particular years were chosen, for one, to keep it as recent as possible, and secondly, to allow prep players an appropriate amount of time to get to the big leagues. Prep players start their pro careers at 17 or 18 years of age, so it would be unfair to use the 2007-2009 classes in our sample.)
During those six drafts we're looking at, 76 high school players were drafted in Round 1, so the get-to-the-bigs rate is surprisingly high at 46 percent. And the '06 class has at least a couple -- like Kyle Drabek and Hank Conger -- that could break through within the next year or so.
With the high school kids it's always about what they can become rather than what they already are, while with the college players they're already three-quarters of what they'll be at their peak, leaving little projection. So in those terms, clubs know far more about the college draft pick, which should mean the return is safer, right?
Wrong.
In those same draft years, 45 of 103 college first-round picks made a current active roster -- just under 44 percent, two percent less than prep players.
Now the other question is, what level of contribution are they making? We did that math, too. More than 88 percent from the high school group are starting pitchers or everyday players at the big-league level and 79 percent of the college draftees are. The prep players have made 37 percent more All-Star appearances than their college brethren. While Tim Lincecum, a part of the college draft class of 2006, has made sure the college talent has more individual hardware, as a whole they would seem to be outperformed by the prep class.
So what does that mean for the 2010 draft class?
Absolutely nothing when it comes to what order the talent is selected. But it does prove that those who believe there is greater risk in prep players are wrong. The math clearly says otherwise. While a prep arm remains the single riskiest pick overall, those teams that have continued to scout and analyze them have been paid dividends for their investments.
That said, we'll still probably see college talent getting pushed further up the draft board as current economic stresses pressure teams to look for players who are ready to contribute sooner than later.
Notes
With mock drafts being among the most drawn up pieces of content on the internet between now and draft day, I asked a couple scouts what they think of some of them. Without mentioning the outfit by name, here were a couple of the responses to multiple mocks.
* • "I can see about 1/3 of that happening. Mock drafts are a joke for the most part. Are they trying to predict our actual selections or telling the world who they would take? Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. I see a lot of guessing going on here." -- NL area scout
* • "There's just no chance that the (team name deleted) take (player name deleted) that high. The money doesn't fit, it's not their style and I am not sure that kid belongs in the first round. If they think so, they might have a tough draft to believe in." -- AL crosschecker
* • "Harper at No. 1? Are they crazy? Anyone who has Harper at the top is nuts. The kid is a third-round player at best." -- AL area scout doing his impression of the Pittsburgh Pirates' scouting department. The Pirates pick No. 2 behind Washington.
Like we wrote last week, this year's first round is going to be nuts. We're going to see a lot of players drop out of the first round as clubs punt on this year's class or value the chance at a quicker return more than a risky, upside play. Our comedian impressionist put his own skin back on to opine on the scenarios that could play out:
"I just think everyone is under the gun so much more now," he said. "If we screw up more than once, we're probably out of a job, and our boss (the scouting director) is probably on thin ice, too. We're in a 'can't-miss' era right now, especially when the upside with some of these players isn't as high as it has been, and the risk may be even greater.
"I understand the philosophy on the other side of it, but most organizations can't afford to keep taking big chances and not getting anything out of it. I think the bigger market teams will take those chances and that's about it.
"I'm hearing that an inordinate amount of clubs are considering going slot only in the first round so they can bulk up the later rounds where the value may be."
That last sentence could be key to this year's draft. If first-round talents are passed on, the value will be in the compensatory and second rounds, without a doubt.
"I definitely see that happening. It's not a good year for players to ask for big money. They aren't going to get it, and will slide down in the draft and still not get it."
