http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=4975668Monday, March 8, 2010
Four guys who could leadoff in the pros
It's no secret why power hitters are the prizes of the draft, and why table setters aren't typically valued in the same manner. But the relatively recent paradigm shift, which values on-base percentage, may result in a few more of the leadoff-type hitters being selected high.
The class of 2010 boasts college stars that fit that bill:
Gary Brown, Fullerton State: Brown is led by his speed, and is a free swinger; he's yet to draw a single walk all season. Still, his raw speed can't be missed: Brown showed off sub-four-second times to first base this spring.
Tyler Holt, Florida State: Holt is led by his speed as well but, unlike Brown, he's more adept at getting on base and working the count.
Leon Landry, LSU: Landry is a well above-average runner, and offers more power than Holt or Brown, who aim for the gaps and run to daylight from the right side of the batter's box. Landry, a left-handed hitter, brings a sturdy build -- often considered to possess a thick lower half -- and a short, somewhat simple load that pulls him through the strike zone with solid bat speed.
"He's a nice, intriguing talent," said an American League club's area scout of the LSU standout. "He runs, and brings some punch to the plate. I like the way he plays the game, and he might fit at the top of the lineup with his patience and plate skills." Landry's biggest weaknesses include a swing plane that tends to lag and produce too many ground balls, eliminating some of the power potential in his bat, and, as Keith Law wrote last summer, "his pitch recognition still isn't great."
Austin Wates, Virginia Tech: Wates, another right-handed bat, is more like Landry, and considered the best overall prospect among the group. He hit .397/.476/.608 a year ago and impressed scouts on the Cap this past summer. He was No. 2 on Law's Cape Cod League Top 30 Prospects List, and may profile in center field despite playing a lot of first base for the Hokies.
"If you want a bat for the top of your lineup, he might be the best guy for that job," said one scout who caught Wates over the summer for the first time. "He might be able to drive in runs for you, though."
Holt and Brown lack the pop to fit ideally anywhere in the middle of the order. But according to on west coast talent evaluator, they will "fit in the 9-hole if they can't lead off." Brown, due to his lack of on-base skills, likely will be drafted in that light.
They're all legit center field prospects, though, which helps the value of whatever they offer offensively. And despite the differences in what clubs are valuing these days, the bats with the power that will still go earliest in June.
On the Diamond
# Holt reached base three times versus Georgia -- two via walk -- increasing his OBP to .521, one point above where he finished 2009. He's drawn nine walks to just five strikeouts, and has six extra-base hits in 10 games.
# Brown continued his walkless streak, but singled twice and doubled in a loss to Arizona Sunday, raising his season line to .478/.489/.826, including nine extra-base hits and seven steals in as many attempts.
# Wates got the day off Sunday after a double-header Saturday, but Landry went 3-for-4 with two triples to improve to .368/.444/.526 in 11 games. More than one scout has opined that perhaps one of the adjustments Landry has made since the middle of last season is a shorter stroke to generate more consistent contact, which may explain why he hit the ball on the ground a lot last summer and has yet to homer in 45 plate appearances this season after hitting 12 last year.
# Georgia Tech's Derek Dietrich singled and doubled in five trips versus Rutgers Sunday and is now hitting .333/.480/.487, but has just four extra-base hits in 39 official at-bats. The Yellow Jackets closer, Kevin Jacob, allowed four earned runs in his inning, ruining the shutout started by 2011 prospect Jed Bradley, a projectable left-hander with a 27-1 K/BB ratio in 17 frames.
# Ball State's Kolbrin Vitek went 2-for-4 in a loss to Coastal Carolina, and enters the new week with a .395/.438/.791 line that includes four homers and three doubles. The 6-foot-3, 195 pound Vitek doubles as a starting pitcher, but is getting more attention as a bat -- which is easy to justify with a stat line like that.
# Arkansas RHP Brett Eibner walked in his only plate appearance, but fanned five in five strong innings versus California. He allowed four hits and an earned run in the loss, but did not walk a batter and was efficient throughout.
# East Carolina's Devin Harris doubled and hit his first home run of the year Sunday, but has still yet to really get it going this season. He's hitting .294/.385/.500 for the year, but as a 6-foot-4, 221-pound corner outfielder, the right-handed hitter will have to build on the 14 long balls he smacked in 2009 to solidify his place among the first-day candidates.
# Alabama's Josh Rutledge homered twice and now has six extra-base hits in 36 at-bats on the season. The defense-first shortstop has walked just once, but is showing an improved ability to make contact after after striking out 50 times in 2009. "Maybe he just knows who he is now and isn't trying to do too much," offered one scout.
# Notre Dame right-hander Brian Dupra fought through seven strong innings Sunday, allowing seven hits -- all singles -- and an earned run while throwing 83 for 115 pitches for strikes. Dupra is likely a late first or early second-day selection at best, but like many arms could shoot up the charts during the spring.
# Connecticut 3B Mike Olt, a potential Top 100 selection, hit a grand slam Sunday -- his first long ball of the season -- and enters the week batting .400 with two extra base hits in six games. Much like ECU's Harris, Olt must show more consistent power to improve his stock, but as a former shortstop is generally thought to have the athleticism to stay at third, or make a successful move to a corner outfield spot as a pro.
# In Saturday's prep action, Chipley High School (Fla.) right-hander Karsten Whitson fanned 10 in a 2-1 win over Walton HS, giving up just two hits in the process. He did not allow a walk. One scout in attendance told Keith Law that Whitsen was "filthy."
# Maranatha High School (Pasadena, Calif.) right-hander Dylan Covey made his first start of the year Friday night, striking out 12 and allowing one hit and a walk in five innings. Both runs were unearned. An area scout called Covey's outing "impressive" but also said "he's just getting started."
