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Author Topic: Pirates 2010 ZiPS Projections- Some Thoughts  (Read 2186 times)
gamecckfn
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« Reply #30 on: February 08, 2010, 02:11:53 PM »

Capps lost weight from 2008 to 2009.  He was supposed to be in great shape. 
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Dale Berras Stash
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« Reply #31 on: February 08, 2010, 02:20:37 PM »

Capps lost weight from 2008 to 2009.  He was supposed to be in great shape. 

"Round" is a shape.
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olsavsky55
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« Reply #32 on: February 08, 2010, 03:49:11 PM »

A Neil Walker comparable player projection of Scott Spiezio is very funny to me.  Perhaps he'll groom himself to look more like Satan and become a LaRussa favoriate reserve.
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Doumits Girl
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« Reply #33 on: February 08, 2010, 04:43:33 PM »

Quote
This is one of your most ignorant statements yet, and shows that you will post anything to try to twist this into a "blunder".

Hey, it's a 2-way street.  Obviously Capps has to have the dignity and pride to keep himself in shape.  But the Pirates also have a huge role in what type of physical shape their players keep themselves in.  These are multi-million dollar investments, so if a player is slacking in that department, they need to correct him immediately.

So I absolutely think part of the fault lies with the Pirates' medical/training staff.  Some fat guys make good pitchers, but it didn't take long to tell that Matt was no Boomer Wells.

If his new team gets him hitting the treadmill, I bet he's going to have a season much in line with his previous ones.  2009 will become the outlier, and Neal will look like a substantial oaf for letting him go for nothing.


Jacen
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CentralCABucsFan
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« Reply #34 on: February 08, 2010, 04:56:44 PM »

These are multi-million dollar investments, so if a player is slacking in that department, they need to correct him immediately.

Well, he's not a multi-million dollar investment any longer.  I'd say they corrected him.

Read the article someone posted in this thread.  It doesn't sound like treadmills are going to be in his future.  I was on the fence about releasing Capps until I read that article.  Now it all makes sense.
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scrapiron
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« Reply #35 on: February 08, 2010, 05:10:14 PM »

Quote
This is one of your most ignorant statements yet, and shows that you will post anything to try to twist this into a "blunder".

Hey, it's a 2-way street.  Obviously Capps has to have the dignity and pride to keep himself in shape.  But the Pirates also have a huge role in what type of physical shape their players keep themselves in.  These are multi-million dollar investments, so if a player is slacking in that department, they need to correct him immediately.

So I absolutely think part of the fault lies with the Pirates' medical/training staff.  Some fat guys make good pitchers, but it didn't take long to tell that Matt was no Boomer Wells.

If his new team gets him hitting the treadmill, I bet he's going to have a season much in line with his previous ones.  2009 will become the outlier, and Neal will look like a substantial oaf for letting him go for nothing.


Jacen

So what kind of off-season workout program do you think the Pirates had him on?  You do understand that each and every player is given a regimen to follow, don't you?  Are they supposed to look over his shoulder every minute to keep him on track, or as a professional should Capps have done that himself?  They even have the yearly voluntary mini-camp to check on these types of things.  Capps failed to follow any exercise program.  The Pirates can't have him report daily to PNC or the Bradenton facilities. 

I'm not one to say that overweight pitchers can't pitch because there are too many instances where they are good.  It doesn't help them in the long run, but it is each players responsibility to be in playing condition.  Whether this had anything to do with the reasons Capps was released, we will probably never know.
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WTM
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« Reply #36 on: February 08, 2010, 05:56:38 PM »

Capps 109 ERA+
Burnett 103 ERA+
Chavez 91 ERA+

The ZIPS projections for the guys the Pirates acquired are listed with their former teams.

Dotel  110
Donnelly  116
Carrasco  107

Plus Hanrahan at 105.
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shayborg
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« Reply #37 on: February 08, 2010, 07:04:46 PM »

Capps 109 ERA+
Burnett 103 ERA+
Chavez 91 ERA+

The ZIPS projections for the guys the Pirates acquired are listed with their former teams.

Dotel  110
Donnelly  116
Carrasco  107

Plus Hanrahan at 105.

Dotel and Carrasco should get projected a little higher even because of the league change.
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wvbucco
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« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2010, 07:12:25 PM »

Don't they have some kind of league-change adjustment or some other such mathy thing you can apply to the numbers?
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« Reply #39 on: February 08, 2010, 07:14:02 PM »

Capps 109 ERA+
Burnett 103 ERA+
Chavez 91 ERA+

The ZIPS projections for the guys the Pirates acquired are listed with their former teams.

Dotel  110
Donnelly  116
Carrasco  107

Plus Hanrahan at 105.

Dotel and Carrasco should get projected a little higher even because of the league change.

I think ERA+ normalizes for differences in league and ballpark (the Sox play in an extreme hitters' park).  ZIPS projects a better ERA for Capps than Dotel, but a better ERA+ for Dotel.  That's based on the assumption that Dotel would be in a less favorable park and league.
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« Reply #40 on: February 08, 2010, 07:19:19 PM »

Capps lost weight from 2008 to 2009.  He was supposed to be in great shape. 

"Round" is a shape.

He had the same shape he always did.  He just covered it up with fat.
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« Reply #41 on: February 09, 2010, 06:13:55 AM »

Capps 109 ERA+
Burnett 103 ERA+
Chavez 91 ERA+

The ZIPS projections for the guys the Pirates acquired are listed with their former teams.

Dotel  110
Donnelly  116
Carrasco  107

Plus Hanrahan at 105.

Dotel and Carrasco should get projected a little higher even because of the league change.

I think ERA+ normalizes for differences in league and ballpark (the Sox play in an extreme hitters' park).  ZIPS projects a better ERA for Capps than Dotel, but a better ERA+ for Dotel.  That's based on the assumption that Dotel would be in a less favorable park and league.

It does normalize for ballpark, but not for league -- a 100 ERA+ for a White Sox pitcher means that he performed like an average AL pitcher.
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WTM
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« Reply #42 on: February 09, 2010, 10:17:41 PM »

It does normalize for ballpark, but not for league -- a 100 ERA+ for a White Sox pitcher means that he performed like an average AL pitcher.

Theoretically, then, they should beat their projections, I guess.

I forgot to look up Lopez before.  ZIPS has him at 96 ERA+.  That's better than I thought it'd be.  Of course, if Russell doesn't use him strictly as a LOOGY, he's going to do a whole lot worse than that.

ZIPS has Brian Bass at 80, Jack Taschner at 91, Justin Thomas at 84 and Jeff Sues at 86.  There was no projection for Burres.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2010, 10:21:58 PM by WTM » Logged

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« Reply #43 on: February 09, 2010, 11:08:45 PM »

I think the pirates did correct the issue with Capps conditioning.  He didn't get in good shape between the managements 1st season, and their second season and he was shown the door.  Gorzy was also shown the door and they were the two players that seemed to be singled out for conditioning.
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