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Will
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2010, 03:17:02 AM » |
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Not a big fan of ZIPS. ZIPS is based off of historical production, so a player who doesn't have much experience is likely to have a lower ZIP than one who has a track record. It also doesn't account for player declines because it looks too far back.
This. ZiPS is notoriously inaccurate as far as a true predictor of future performance goes. |
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Rutang
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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2010, 04:44:05 PM » |
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Jeff Locke had a 3.16 FIP after the trade. It's been under 3.50 for most of his career. That is very solid.
Agreed. I was looking at Locke's stats post trade, and they were suprisingly better than I thought. |
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Doumits Girl
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« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2010, 09:44:44 PM » |
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Not a big fan of ZIPS. ZIPS is based off of historical production, so a player who doesn't have much experience is likely to have a lower ZIP than one who has a track record. It also doesn't account for player declines because it looks too far back.
This. ZiPS is notoriously inaccurate as far as a true predictor of future performance goes. I'm going to have to disagree there. If I recall correctly, ZiPS predicted Tampa Bay would have the breakout season before anyone else in the world did. I think that alone speaks to its impressive forecasting abilities. Jacen |
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Will
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« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2010, 10:12:39 PM » |
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I'm going to have to disagree there. If I recall correctly, ZiPS predicted Tampa Bay would have the breakout season before anyone else in the world did. I think that alone speaks to its impressive forecasting abilities.
Jacen
Nearly Tampa Bay's entire pitching staff that year significantly outperformed their ZiPS projections except for Scott Kazmir. |
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aso513
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« Reply #19 on: February 07, 2010, 10:13:01 PM » |
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Not meant to be rude, but jacen could you provide facts to back that up?
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Slizeezyc
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« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2010, 11:09:41 PM » |
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Not meant to be rude, but jacen could you provide facts to back that up?
I know PECOTA was pretty high on the Rays, not sure about Zips. |
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shayborg
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« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2010, 05:24:14 AM » |
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Not a big fan of ZIPS. ZIPS is based off of historical production, so a player who doesn't have much experience is likely to have a lower ZIP than one who has a track record. It also doesn't account for player declines because it looks too far back.
Capps ZIPs, for example, is based too much on what he did two years ago and not enough on what he did last year. McClouth's ZIPs are based upon what he did for his good years in Pit, but it is clear that those numbers were the exception and not the norm for him.
Morton & Ohlie's ZIPs are based upon very little statistical evidence.
That's not quite how ZiPS works. The system uses the last three or four years of players' production, including minor league numbers. It compares these (with the most recent year weighted much more heavily) with historical players to find players who put up similar numbers at that age in the past. Finally it uses those comparable players to try to generate a projection. Capps' ZiPS projection relies as much on 2009 as it does on 2008 and 2007 combined, but players with that performance pattern have apparently bounced back a little bit (although I should mention that a 109 ERA+ is just a little above average for a reliever). Morton and Ohlendorf get decent projections because players who performed the way they have over the past few years, again including their minor league numbers, have taken steps forward at the major league level. No system can possibly be 100% accurate, but on average ZiPS does a very good job, and the methodology is solid. |
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markson33
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« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2010, 08:59:43 AM » |
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I have to stand by my assessment that ZIPs doesn't work very well. Using the Rays as an example, ZIPs properly predicted the production of the well established players - Pena, Crawford - but misses badly on the players that don't have a strong major league track record. I have a feeling this years ZIPs projections projections for Milledge, Laroche and Ohlendorf will be pretty off, and they fit into that second category.
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Doumits Girl
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« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2010, 09:24:27 AM » |
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Capps' ZiPS projection relies as much on 2009 as it does on 2008 and 2007 combined, Agreed- as it should. The fact that people here are willing to totally write off Capps due to a bad 2009- in which the Pirates' questionable medical and training staff allowed him to balloon up like a blimp right before our eyes- while totally ignoring prior years when he put up: 1.15 WHIP (age 22) 1.01 WHIP (age 23) 0.97 WHIP (age 24) ...is just ridiculous. I would argue that losing a 26-year old with this track record for nothing is right up there with the Bay and McLouth trades as Neal's biggest blunders during his tenure. Jacen |
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Traco Bucco
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« Reply #25 on: February 08, 2010, 09:43:23 AM » |
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in which the Pirates' questionable medical and training staff allowed him to balloon up like a blimp right before our eyes
Perhaps this sort of intervention was necessary... Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: Holy Jesus! What is that? What the **** is that? WHAT IS THAT, CAPPS?
Capps: Sir, a jelly doughnut, sir!
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: A jelly doughnut?
Capps: Sir, yes, sir!
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: How did it get here?
Capps: Sir, I took it from the All You Can Eat Seats, sir!
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: Is chow allowed in the locker room, Capps?
Capps: Sir, no, sir!
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: Are you allowed to eat jelly doughnuts, Capps?
Capps: Sir, no, sir!
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: And why not, Capps?
Capps: Sir, because I'm too heavy, sir!
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: Because you are a disgusting fat body, Capps!
Capps: Sir, yes, sir!
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: Then why did you try to sneak a jelly doughnut in your foot locker, Capps?
Capps: Sir, because I was hungry, sir!
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: Because you were hungry...
[turns and addresses rest of team]
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: Capps has dishonored himself and dishonored the team. I have tried to help him. But I have failed. I have failed because YOU have not helped me. YOU people, have not given Capps the proper motivation! So, from now on, whenever Capps **** up, I will not punish him! I will punish all of YOU! And the way I see it ladies, you owe me for ONE JELLY DOUGHNUT! NOW, GET DOWN ON YOUR FACES!
[rest of Pirates get in front-leaning-rest position, Hartman turns to Capps]
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: Open your mouth!
[shoves jelly doughnut into Capps's mouth]
Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: They're payin' for it; YOU eat it! Ready! Exercise! |
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« Last Edit: February 08, 2010, 10:26:35 AM by 81omar »
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Will
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« Reply #26 on: February 08, 2010, 10:15:32 AM » |
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in which the Pirates' questionable medical and training staff allowed him to balloon up like a blimp right before our eyes Okay, if I ever become fat, I'm blaming everyone around me for "letting it happen." |
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CentralCABucsFan
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« Reply #27 on: February 08, 2010, 11:58:55 AM » |
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...the Pirates' questionable medical and training staff allowed him to balloon up like a blimp right before our eyes...
Jacen
Wow!! You want to put Capps weight problem on the medical and training staff? If there is one thing an athlete must do on his own, it is control what goes into his body, and do the work necessary to perform properly. Once he came out and said he wants to be fat and performs better when he is fat, I figured it would be the end of anyone saying we should have kept him. What would you say we should have done after two years of Capps not taking care of his body? Give him $2-3 million and slap his hand. This is one of your most ignorant statements yet, and shows that you will post anything to try to twist this into a "blunder". |
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notes34
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« Reply #29 on: February 08, 2010, 01:18:49 PM » |
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Capps' ZiPS projection relies as much on 2009 as it does on 2008 and 2007 combined, Agreed- as it should. The fact that people here are willing to totally write off Capps due to a bad 2009- in which the Pirates' questionable medical and training staff allowed him to balloon up like a blimp right before our eyes- while totally ignoring prior years when he put up: 1.15 WHIP (age 22) 1.01 WHIP (age 23) 0.97 WHIP (age 24) ...is just ridiculous. I would argue that losing a 26-year old with this track record for nothing is right up there with the Bay and McLouth trades as Neal's biggest blunders during his tenure. Jacen Wow blaming the training staff for Capps weight is pretty ridiculous. If he doesn't have the will power to at least stay in shape I don't want him. |
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