Pirates 2010 ZiPS Projections- Some Thoughts

[Doumits Girl]

Until last week, if you asked me what zips were, I would've said something on a jacket LOL.  But my boyfriend is in one of those complicated fantasy baseball leagues where they have to use them.  He is a Braves fan (BOO!), but he showed me what they were all about, and told me how they are usually pretty indicative of what players will do that year.  So of course, I quickly found those for the Pirates.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_pittsburgh_pirates/

1.  The first thing that jumps out at this girl is that there's not a single pitcher on the roster predicted to have an ERA below 4.00.  That's a very significant problem.  I know people pat Neal on the back for the pitching depth he acquires, but depth is really only good if you have 2-3 top performers to build behind.  I don't think a rotation made up of a bunch of #4-5 starters is going to be effective.

2.  The only pitcher projected to have a sub-4.00 ERA was Matt Capps, who Neal let go for nothing.  Capps had the highest ERA+ on the whole team of 109 (ouch!).  My boyfriend explained that "100" is average, so anything above that for a pitcher or hitter is good.

3.  Neal's latest veteran FA additions are not listed yet, so instead I decided to take a look at some of the guys we traded away:

Capps 109 ERA+
Burnett 103 ERA+
Chavez 91 ERA+

In fairness, Hanrahan has a 105 ERA+, which balances out the Burnett trade somewhat, although Sean is a lefty, meaning he's probably still a little more valuable.  The thing that really hurts here is losing Capps for nothing.

4.  By these numbers, Neal's Iwamura deal looks better, since the little guy has a 99 OPS+, while Chavez only had a 91 ERA+.  However, I'm still not sure he's that big of an upgrade over Delwyn Young.  Delwyn only had an 89, but is predicted to slug better, have more HR, and more RBI.  The only place Akinori beats him is OBP and defense.  I'm not sure that upgrade is worth over $5,000,000 a year, and the cost of a young reliever- especially when, by the numbers, Akinori is still a slightly below average 2B.

5.  In contrast to the pitching staff, the offense looks like it could surprise.  There are 6 players at or above a 100 OPS+, although one of them is Tagg Bozied, who will probably never get any time with the club. 

6.  It concerns me that Steve Pearce appears to be on his way out with the Pirates.  Not only did he really hit lefties good last year, but he has a 103 OPS+.  Ryan Church was signed after this page was made, but I would be surprised if his numbers were much better, though I personally think he's the one that will push Pearce off the roster this year.  That could end up being a bad decision.

7.  Jeff Clement looks like he could be the real surprise star this year, and one of Neal's best acquisitions to date.  However, he's listed as a catcher on the roster, so I don't know if OPS+ is dependent on position, but if it is, his 107 might be a lot lower if he was just a 1B.  Still, this girl is excited about seeing him play this year.

8.  They don't see Garrett Jones regressing much, Andrew McCutchen looks like he's set to develop more power (WOW!), and they are expecting a big rebound year from my main man Ryan.  (No last name needed LOL!)

9.  One trade looking more and more concerning to me is the Nate McLouth deal.  They have him listed way up at a 118 OPS+ (!!!), which is crazy high.  But if you look at the numbers they're showing for him, I think it's definitely possible.  Neal traded him for Morton (103 ERA+), which is good, but I don't think Gorkys Hernandez (55 OPS+) and especially Jeff Locke are ever going to amount to anything.  So unless Morton really pitches out of his mind, I think that trade is going to end up being a pretty big loss.

10.  The same goes for the Jason Bay trade.  Neal really only has 2 pieces to show for it anymore, as Craig Hansen may be done for good, and Bryan Morris has had both on and off-the-field troubles in the low minors since coming over. 

Andy LaRoche  94 OPS+
Brandon Moss  90 OPS+

They both rate as below average players.  So basically, Neal gave up one of the better OF in baseball on a very reasonable contract for 2 below average players.  Hopefully these guys surprise this year, because otherwise, this trade could look worse than McLouth!  Oh my!


Overall thoughts:

If these numbers hold to form, I think the Pirates are going to struggle to win games this year.  The offense could surprise, but 2 of the best rated players- Clement and Pearce- could potentially lose lots of playing time to an older, mediocre Ryan Church.  That would leave only 3 hitters that rate above average.  I hope Neal considers these numbers!

But the real thing that's going to hurt the Pirates is their pitching, or lack thereof.  I haven't looked at all of the teams, but I bet they are the only one in baseball that doesn't have a single arm projected to pitch below a 4.00 ERA.  Losing Capps for nothing is killer, and I really think Neal should've gone for 1 very good arm in the Bay and McLouth deals, rather than multiple arms with lower ceilings.  The Pirates don't have an in-house ace- or close to it- unless Brad Lincoln and some of Neal's first round of arms really step up.
 

Jacen

[Possum]

You got one thing right.  Bozied will not make the Buccos this year.  In fact he most likely will never make the team.

He signed with the Phillies on December 31, 2009.

[markson33]

Not a big fan of ZIPS.  ZIPS is based off of historical production, so a player who doesn't have much experience is likely to have a lower ZIP than one who has a track record.  It also doesn't account for player declines because it looks too far back. 

Capps ZIPs, for example, is based too much on what he did two years ago and not enough on what he did last year.  McClouth's ZIPs are based upon what he did for his good years in Pit, but it is clear that those numbers were the exception and not the norm for him.

Morton & Ohlie's ZIPs are based upon very little statistical evidence.

[Doumits Girl]

McClouth's ZIPs are based upon what he did for his good years in Pit, but it is clear that those numbers were the exception and not the norm for him.

I don't see how that is clear at all.  Despite being a member of the Braves now, McLouth has spent the majority of his AB with the Pirates, and the majority of those AB have seen him be a very productive player.

Calling that the 'exception' to the rule is not statistically accurate.


Jacen

[Tintin]

Watch the games. 
Capps had an ERA approaching 6 last year and this doesn't count the runs he gave up that were already on base.
He threw straight as an arrow "fastballs" and his breaking stuff had no bite.  Put that in the computer.

Young was not a good defensive 2b.  Watch the games. 

Nate is an average offensive OF.  He is a below average fielding CF.  Watch the games 

He got love in Pittsburgh because compared to Duffy, Tike, Allensworth, Brown and the rest of the guys we threw out to play CF in the last 10 years, he's Willie Mays.  If Morton becomes a #3 starter (take away his 10 er's in 1 IP against the Cubs last year and his ERA was in the mid three), we've robbed the Braves and if Locke and Gorkys do anything in the majors, this will go down as a VanSlyke, Spanky, Dunne trade.  However, if there were boards then, I'm certain you would have whined about that trade as well.

McClouth's ZIPs are based upon what he did for his good years in Pit, but it is clear that those numbers were the exception and not the norm for him.

I don't see how that is clear at all.  Despite being a member of the Braves now, McLouth has spent the majority of his AB with the Pirates, and the majority of those AB have seen him be a very productive player.

Calling that the 'exception' to the rule is not statistically accurate.


Jacen

[81omar]

McClouth's ZIPs are based upon what he did for his good years in Pit, but it is clear that those numbers were the exception and not the norm for him.

I don't see how that is clear at all.  Despite being a member of the Braves now, McLouth has spent the majority of his AB with the Pirates, and the majority of those AB have seen him be a very productive player.

Calling that the 'exception' to the rule is not statistically accurate.


Jacen

   I wouldnt call a majority of his AB's very productive. Only his 2008 season was very productive and he struggled all month in both June and August,so really only about 400 of his career AB's he can be considered very productive and he has just over 1800 AB's. Thats 22% of the time,or if you want to give him the full 2008 season because I'm sure hes had other good weeks/months in other years,thats just under 33% of his career he can be considered very productive. The rest of the time since he started playing more hes been a good average player. Its way to early to judge that trade though,you can like or dislike the return but no one has any idea what the end result will be,it can be anywhere from bad for us to one-sided in our favor if Gorkys and Nate are even and the pitchers are both useful

[Doumits Girl]

Watch the games. 
Capps had an ERA approaching 6 last year and this doesn't count the runs he gave up that were already on base.
He threw straight as an arrow "fastballs" and his breaking stuff had no bite.  Put that in the computer.

Young was not a good defensive 2b.  Watch the games. 

Nate is an average offensive OF.  He is a below average fielding CF.  Watch the games 

This thread isn't about my own personal recollections, it's about what a group of statistical experts is saying the Pirates will be like this year.  I have no doubt they watch their fare share of more than a few games.

I believe most of their statistical conclusions will be proven true this year.  I think they present a realistic- if not even slightly optimistic- view of the 2010 Pirates.  And if you don't think that they are, I would suggest you are probably the one that isn't watching very closely.


Jacen

[notes34]

Look at the Mclouth deal in another perspective. Cutch was ready to come up I think we can all agree on that, so that leaves Nate as a corner OF correct? Do you really think Nate is an above avg. corner OF? Even the most ardent McLouth devotee can't argue that point. It was time to move Nate and get the best return possible. Maybe we did maybe we didn't but I'm not upset with that trade in the least.

[SpacePirate]

but I don't think Gorkys Hernandez (55 OPS+) and especially Jeff Locke are ever going to amount to anything.  So unless Morton really pitches out of his mind, I think that trade is going to end up being a pretty big loss.

What makes you think Gorkys and Locke are not ever going to amount to anything?  I'm not the biggest Gorkys fan, but I like Locke's potential.  He could be a solid, if unspectacular, member of the rotation -- a solid #3/4 pitcher that will eat a lot of innings.  I think that is a pretty good return for McLouth, who Pirate fans with blinders on seem to vastly overrate.  His ZIPS projection for 2010 seems a bit silly to me -- a 118 OPS+ (that's what the actual projection is listed as)?  That would be very near his career year (2008...125 OPS+) and put him in the top 30 of all NL players based on the results of the 2008 season.  Maybe that will work in the Braves well-stacked lineup, but I doubt it.

We need to revisit this discussion in the fall...

[Doumits Girl]

Look at the Mclouth deal in another perspective. Cutch was ready to come up I think we can all agree on that, so that leaves Nate as a corner OF correct? Do you really think Nate is an above avg. corner OF? Even the most ardent McLouth devotee can't argue that point. It was time to move Nate and get the best return possible. Maybe we did maybe we didn't but I'm not upset with that trade in the least.

All I know is that an OF of McLouth-McCutchen-Jones would be one of the best in baseball this year.  Now when you replace McLouth with Milledge, it's probably only average at best.  Nate was a great friend to Ryan, who was sad to see him go, as they both thought the Pirates were going to build around Nate, which is why he agreed to that very reasonable extension.

I'm not the biggest Gorkys fan, but I like Locke's potential.

Not me.  Gorkys is basically a poor man's McCutchen, and that might even be an insult to McCutchen.  Gorkys has far less power than Nate, who people say needed to be traded because he can't play a corner spot.  Well how do you expect Gorkys to do so with even less power?

And Jeff Locke hasn't been good since rookie ball in 2007.  He's been utterly mediocre-poor the last two years, so I'm not going to hold my breath that he becomes even a #4 starter.  The stats don't show it.

I miss Nate.


Jacen

[notes34]

So because he was a friend to Ryan we should have kept him? That is a smart baseball move. I like Lasting's potential. Let's not forget it wasn't long ago he was one of the top prospects in baseball. He has all the tools to be a very good player and by all accounts he is in much better shape now.

[dave3BA]

All I know is that an OF of McLouth-McCutchen-Jones would be one of the best in baseball this year. 

Assumptions galore.  McLouth really is average...The stats show that.  His 2008 - up to now - is the outlier.  McCutchen is entering his second year, we all need to temper expectations...The stats also show that 2009 was the absolute best we could have hoped for.  Jones had an outstanding year, but check his track record.  He may or may not replicate that...The stats show that.

Now when you replace McLouth with Milledge, it's probably only average at best. 

So McLouth to Milledge is enough to take the outfield from one of the best in baseball to below average with a ceiling of average?!  No, I didn't think so.

Nate was a great friend to Ryan, who was sad to see him go, as they both thought the Pirates were going to build around Nate, which is why he agreed to that very reasonable extension.

And now we get to the crux of the problem with this statement.  You obviously think the "27 Yankees" shouldn't have been broken up because they were all great friends with your fantasy boyfriend Ryan.  What an argument.

Gorkys is basically a poor man's McCutchen, and that might even be an insult to McCutchen. 

Agreed.  I don't think Gorkys is going to end up anywhere near McCutchen either.

Gorkys has far less power than Nate, who people say needed to be traded because he can't play a corner spot.  Well how do you expect Gorkys to do so with even less power?

First off, who says that Hernandez has to have power OR play a corner spot?  If he blows up AAA, we've got a nice problem on our hands.

And Jeff Locke hasn't been good since rookie ball in 2007.  He's been utterly mediocre-poor the last two years, so I'm not going to hold my breath that he becomes even a #4 starter.  The stats don't show it.

He's young.  Let's see how he does with a full season in the Pirates system.  It's certainly too early to write him off.

I miss Nate.

So does Ryan, I'm sure.

[Traco Bucco]

And Jeff Locke hasn't been good since rookie ball in 2007.  He's been utterly mediocre-poor the last two years, so I'm not going to hold my breath that he becomes even a #4 starter.  The stats don't show it.

I miss Nate.

I kinda miss Nate, too.  When you've followed someone's career and advocated for their worthiness as a productive major leaguer for years before popular opinion (not to mention team management...) caught up to that perspective, it's hard to see them go. :-(

I wouldn't be so quick to give up on Locke, though.  It's true that his performance before the end of July was lackluster.  ln his last eight starts, however, from July 29-September 6, he did some nice work for the Hillcats .  He gave up one run or fewer in six of those starts, and had a K/BB rate of 35/6.  I attended his only outing with really bad numbers, 5 ER and 12 hits in 5.2 innings against Myrtle Beach on August 14, but the most memorable aspect of that game (outside of Jamie Romak being in the middle of a bench-clearing incident provoked by a Myrtle Beach player's too-slow trot on his game-winning home run...) was that most of the hits against Locke were weakly struck, most likely outs with better defense ("McCutchen would have had that one," I remember thinking at one point...).  Overall, he seemed to have good control and be capable of missing bats.  I talked to him for a bit after the game, and he seemed to have a good head on his shoulders.

So, while I'd be hesitant to anoint Locke the new John Candelaria (or even the next Randy Tomlin), I think he's definitely someone worth keeping an eye on at Altoona this year, to see if he can build on his late-season success.  He turned 22 a couple of months ago, so he's a good age for AA.  ("A name to remember," as Joe L. Brown would say.)

[SpacePirate]

And Jeff Locke hasn't been good since rookie ball in 2007.  He's been utterly mediocre-poor the last two years, so I'm not going to hold my breath that he becomes even a #4 starter.  The stats don't show it.

So, because Jeff Locke performed "poorly" for a year and a half at A and A+ ball as a 20/21 yr old, that is cause to write him off as a prospect?  It is true that he is not a sure-fire, can't-miss prospect at this point, but let's see how he does in AA this year as a 22 yr old and re-evaluate.

It has been said again and again and again: you CAN'T evaluate a trade of an established ML player for prospects after only a season (and a partial season in this case).  It just doesn't work out that way. 

The other point that people seem to miss is that NH could be the next Billy Beane, but not every trade he makes is going to work out perfectly.  He did a great job (so far) with the Nady/Marte deal, but the Jason Bay trade looks mediocre at best right now.  NO ONE bats a thousand in these trades...no one.  What people like with NH and the new regime is the overall strategy is correct for a team in the Pirates situation -- you can lose battles and still win the war, so to speak.

[MattB]

Jeff Locke had a 3.16 FIP after the trade.  It's been under 3.50 for most of his career.  That is very solid.