Belichick's 4th Down Decision

[gorillagogo]

I've seen a lot of commentary around the web on this, but nothing here. There seems to be a new school of thought developing that Belichick made the right decision, and that in general teams should go for it on 4th down more often. The following site has the best summary of what I've seen:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

Traditionalists, of course, write this off as a bunch of know-nothing statheads crunching some numbers and giving us lies, darn lies and statistics.

Personally, I can see the merits of either side, although I'm leaning towards the position that the Pats should have punted. I would like to see just where the site I linked above gets their stats that teams have a 53% chance to score a TD from their opponent's 28 and a 30% chance to score from their own 30. Those are the most crucial factors in the argument in favor of going for it, yet the numbers just don't seem right to me.

[MaineBucs]

I am not a big pro football fan, but I did see the 4th quarter of the Pats - Colts game. 

I thought Belichick was wrong to go for it on 4th and 2 because of the specific circumstances in this game.  Many quarterbacks and teams can cover 29 yards with 2+ minutes on the clock.  The Colts also had just demonstrated their ability to strike quickly for a TD on their prior position.  In short, I would have punted to create more green space between the Colts and the end zone.

Also, while I recognize that Belichick reassessed the situation after the 3rd down pass went awry, if he fully intended to go for it on 4th and 2, I would have preferred to see the Pats run the ball on 3rd down (3rd and 2) to try and make a first or to further shorten the distance for a 1st down.  Such a move could have created even greater uncertainity among the Colts regarding how the Pats would approach 4th down --- a Brady sneak, an off-tackle run or even a short pass. 

On the whole, I believe too many teams are too timid on 4th down plays, particular if a team has a good defense.  I am often comfortable with a coach and team taking a risk on 4th down.  For example, Ohio State converteda 4th down play in their own territory against Penn State and it was a factor (among many other factors) in Ohio State winning the game.

In this case, kudos to Belichick for being willing to take the risk, but I believe he made the wrong call in this situation.

[Dogknot3]

I think it depends on where you are on the field.  I am a fan of going for it at the 50 yard line or on the opponent's side of the field. 

In this situation, I would have punted.  If they were worried about giving Manning the ball with 80 yards to go, 30 yards to go is much, much worse. 

I do hate when teams punt at the opponent's 40 or so.  If the Punter doesn't punt it inside the ten yard line, it will only be a net gain of about twenty yards.  I don't see that as that much of a difference.  I also don't understand why Punters don't punt the ball out of bounds anymore?  They used to do that a lot in the 80's and early 90's.  If you punt the ball out of bounds, they is no return.