Eastern League top 20

[WTM]

Alvarez #1, Lincoln #10, Tabata #15.

Alvarez had an eventful calendar year, signing late last September after a dispute with the Pirates. After an offseason of rumored conditioning issues, he started slowly at high Class A Lynchburg, striking out in 25 percent of his at-bats. But after his promotion to Altoona, he showed the talent that made him the No. 2 overall pick in the 2008 draft.

Alvarez used his strength and "serious raw power," as one manager put it, to punish league pitchers who caught too much of the plate. Alvarez's bat made him an elite prospect even back to high school, but EL managers also were cautiously optimistic about his defense at third base. He's no Gold Glover, but he has a plus arm and good hands, compensating for modest range and agility. Scouts agreed Alvarez should be able to stay at third at least for the early part of his big league career.

"He took what we gave him, hit our lefthanders, made adjustments‚ he was a monster," said Portland manager Arnie Beyelor. "He reminded me a little bit of (Kevin) Youkilis in that he's a better athlete than he looks."

Lincoln and Drabek were both in the state of Texas in the 2006 draft class. While Lincoln is three years older, he has many similarities to Drabek in that both are athletic, have shorter, strong bodies and have had Tommy John surgery. Lincoln showed he's healthy by pitching 136 innings overall, then pitching well in Europe for Team USA. He pitched 23 innings overall and got the win in the gold-medal game against Cuba.

Two years removed from TJ, Lincoln threw more strikes this year and stood out with command of a fastball that touched 95 mph and sat at 90-93 mph. He threw quality strikes to both corners and showed the late life that allowed him to get swings and misses in the strike zone with fastballs. "He pitched inside for effect and for strikes," Walbeck said, "and his fastball and his curveball both have that little extra, that late life."

A National League scout said Lincoln's power curveball isn't quite what it was when he was an amateur, but it's still a plus pitch at times. His changeup is his third pitch but has made strides.

Tabata has been a fixture on prospect lists since he was a 17-year-old in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2005. Since then, he has been traded (by the Yankees to the Pirates), endured questions about his makeup and effort, and had a controversy in spring training when his wife—who's more than twice his age—was arrested for kidnapping.

Through it all, Tabata has maintained impressive tools. He has an above-average bat with good offensive instincts, the ability to stay inside the ball and a willingness to use the whole field. He's a slightly above-average runner, but his ultimate value will depend on how much power he develops, as he totaled just five homers in 2009. He's an average defender in center field with a strong arm, and once Gorkys Hernandez arrived in the Pirates system, Tabata saw more time in right field.

"He's a corner guy, and I believe the power will come," Walbeck said. "He has the swing and an ability to raise his level of play against better competition. The last piece is learning to backspin the ball."

The chat should be interesting, seeing as how it's Pirate-basher John Manuel.

[Dale Berras Stash]

JAYPERS (IL): Tim Alderson pitched for two teams within the E.L. this year. What did managers and scouts tell you about him, both pre and post-trade? Also, did he get any consideration for the list?

John Manuel: Jaypers, no one really had great things to say on Alderson, and that was tough for me to hear because I wrote him up in our '06 draft coverage out of Arizona. His stuff sounds significantly shorter now than it was then. It's not just that he lost some fastball velo; he's lost life on the fastball and snap on the breaking ball. Where he once had two pitches that graded out as 55 or 60 pitches, he now has a 40 or 45 fastball for most people, and the breaking ball got similar grades. Everyone credited his success to deception. I kept asking, because I wanted to rank him. But I didn't find an advocate for him.

[Dale Berras Stash]

Adrian Thaws (Bristol): Danny Moskos is the most divisive prospect among the fans for the Pirates. There is a small but vocal contigent that still feel that he can be a starter based on this year. Can he be a LOOGY in the majors or a starter or neither?

John Manuel: I think he can be a starter, but he's not an impact guy at this point. As a reliever in college, the guy had a heavy fastball that bumped 97; as a starter he bumps 93 and sits 87-91. He has sink and maintains his velocity, so he can pitch off the fastball. I toyed with ranking him and probably would put him in the 23-27 range. But it sounds like his slider is a groundball slider, not the wipeout, 87 mph pitch he had in college. It's not fair to him that he's always going to be compared with Matt Wieters, that's not his fault, but I still don't quite understand why he's starting. He had impact potential as a closer, not as a starter. He can still be a big league starter, though.

[Dale Berras Stash]

Jeff Sollars (Chambersburg, Pa): Was Gorkys Hernandez close to top 20? What is his upside? Thanks

John Manuel: Not really, more 26-30 type, because for me the guy is a fourth outfielder. He just doesn't drive the ball with any consistency. Still a long way to go for him offensively against quality pitching, and his speed doesn't play on the bases, where he was 19-for-35. Hard to see the offensive upside if there's not significant improvement on one of those fronts.

[Dale Berras Stash]

Beth Gibbons (Portishead, UK): Has Alvarez improved his approach to hitting lefties or was he just so white-hot during AA that it didn't matter? Also, what is your personal opinion on whether he can stay at 3B for the near future?

John Manuel: It sounds like Alvarez is just a streaky hitter, and he was locked in with Altoona. I think he's an early career 3B, who will move to first base in three to five years. That was the general consensus among people I talked to, and they were assuming he would put in the work to stay in shape. I talked to Pedro while he was going through customs after the World Cup, and he said defense was his top priority during the season and that his offseason priority is conditioning. He's not playing but is going to Arizona to Athlete's Performance, I believe, and that could go a long way to helping him stay at third in the near-term. He just needs to improve his agility and first-step quickness a bit to be an average defender -- average-to-plus arm, solid hands.

[thegreatchris]

It kind of boggles my mind that Moskos is a better prospect than Gorkys.

[ECBucs]

I'm wondering if Gorkys can be a Devon White type player?  Not consistently good on offense but a big asset in center.

[georgejones]

Beth Gibbons (Portishead, UK): Has Alvarez improved his approach to hitting lefties or was he just so white-hot during AA that it didn't matter? Also, what is your personal opinion on whether he can stay at 3B for the near future?

I didn't know the singer from Portishead followed the Curve.

[befubashi]

I am disappointed to hear these negative reports on Alderson and Hernandez.  It's funny that Hernandez was so high on post-trade prospects lists.  Dejan's #6, Perroto's #5, Callis's #6.

[Dale Berras Stash]

Beth Gibbons (Portishead, UK): Has Alvarez improved his approach to hitting lefties or was he just so white-hot during AA that it didn't matter? Also, what is your personal opinion on whether he can stay at 3B for the near future?

I didn't know the singer from Portishead followed the Curve.

Nice catch on one of my many aliases that I submitted!  Can't believe someone picked up a Portishead reference.  Note that Adrian Thaws also "asked" a question, as well (Tricky's real name).

[northsidenotch]

After seeing Alderson, I have no idea why San Francisco didn't do something about his delivery. It's awful. No way can you throw the way he does and get everything out of a pitch. No way.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Alderson's mechanics altered big time going into next year.

[aso513]

I think something must be flawed with sf's handling of pitchers. No excuse for Bumgarner and Alderson both experiencing dips in velo.

[MaineBucs]

On the plus side --- the OBN poll uses a top 30.  According to Manuel, the Pirates had at least 5 in the top 30.  Unfortunately, most were in the lower part of the top 30.

I guess Manuel doesn't subscribe to the theory that it is best to use 'quality' pitchers in the minors as starters and to wait until the majors to shift them to the pen if they don't work out as starters.   

Regardless, I find it encouraging that Moskos appeared in any top 30 list, and that someone believes he could make it in the majors as a starter.  Then again, JVB made it in the major as a starter; unfortunately a very bad one and for only a brief period of time.

[WTM]

I guess Manuel doesn't subscribe to the theory that it is best to use 'quality' pitchers in the minors as starters and to wait until the majors to shift them to the pen if they don't work out as starters.

I was struck by that comment because it seemed kinda ignorant to me.

But then BA has done a lot to propagate the notion that college closers are valuable prospects.  The track record of first round college closers is pretty poor.

[gnarburger]

But then BA has done a lot to propagate the notion that college closers are valuable prospects.  The track record of first round college closers is pretty poor.

Are you saying Craig Hansen wasn't a tremendous major league success?