Handicapping the NRI's

[slider]

While I wait for NH and the boys to make that one "big" move before spring traing starts (Wade Davis please).  Thought it would be interesting to see which non-roster invites we think have the best chance of making the team this season.  I am only looking at guys who were brought in from outside the organization for this list.

2010/2011 NRI's-  The list had some ex mega prospects (Garrett Atkins, Josh Fields, Andy Marte), one of which I thought for sure would make the team.  Atkins was released, Fields was sold to the Rockies and Marte ended up struggling in AAA all season.  The only non roster guy to make the team last season was Jose Veras, who most of us had pencilled into the bullpen as soon as he signed.  Fernando Nieve and Wyatt Toregas were a couple other interesting guys who made little (Toregas) to no impact(Nieve).

2012 offers several guys who are at least moderately interesting either because of their age, versatility, or past success.

Pitchers

1) Ryoto Igarashi-  Still throws hard (92-95MPH) and managed a decent ERA (4.66), but high whip probably makes him an Indy callup if needed.  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-20%

2)  Logan Kensing-  Another hard thrower who will need to show something in camp just  to stick in Indy.  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-1%

3)  Shairon Martis-  If it's true he has gained velocity since leaving Washington he could be a good long term investment.  I don't think he breaks camp but I could see him heading up the Indy rotation and being among the first callup for spot starts-  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-5%

4)  Jo JO Reyes-  Another ex Brave prospect that hasn't panned out.  I think the Pirates would like to see him win a relief job but he has an uphill climb.  He could be a guy who adds velocity in the bullpen as he once threw a pretty consistent 92-94MPH although he has settled in at 89-90 MPH as a starter Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-  30%

5)  Doug Slaten-  Don't get this signing.  With Reyes, Watson, Wilson, Moskos ahead of him, I don't think he makes it through camp. Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-1%

Position Players

1)  Jake Fox-  I think the McGehee signing was bad news for Fox.  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-1%

2)  Jose Morales-  Under the radar signing that I like.  If Fort falters he can be optioned down and I'm pretty sure Barajas will not be healthy all season,  Morales is a LH hitting catcher who gets on base at a .360 clip.  That's about a 100 pts higher than Barajas career average.  He might not break camp but we will see him a t some point.  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates- 30%

3)  Nick Evans-  My "Jose Veras" for this season.  The Mcgehee trade also hurts him but he is veratile enough to play the corner IF and OF, plus he clobbers LH pitching. Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-75%

4)  Anderson Hernandez-  Another signing I don't like because if he is in the minors, he is taking AB's away fro the D'Arnaud, Mercer, Navarro's of the world.  I would hope there is no way he makes the team but we know the Pirates like defense-  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-10%

5)  Brandon Boggs-  Organization depth I would think.  Hopefully he doesn't take ab's away from Lambo in AAA.  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates-1%

So my top 3 guys in order are Evans, Morales, and Reyes.  All three I think contribute at some point this season.  Feel free to set me straight.

Slider

[bradlej31]

I like Reyes a lot.

[Optimist]

good stuff slider.  but i think fox has better than a 1% chance.  if just because of possible injuries.  i don't like him much though.

[slider]

good stuff slider.  but i think fox has better than a 1% chance.  if just because of possible injuries.  i don't like him much though.

Thanks, appreciate the compliment.

I think the Pirates value defense enough that Fox has no chance as a "bat" only guy off the bench.  He would be fifth on the depth chart at catcher behind Barajas, Fort, Morales and Fryer.  If the Pirates need a corner IF I think they look at Evans, Hague, Harrison, Navarro, and Mcgehee(all except for Evans are on the 40 man roster) before they consider Fox.  Your right, I should never say never, but if Fox makes this team out of spring a LOT of things will have had to go wrong.

Slider

[blackmax]

good stuff slider.  but i think fox has better than a 1% chance.  if just because of possible injuries.  i don't like him much though.

Thanks, appreciate the compliment.

I think the Pirates value defense enough that Fox has no chance as a "bat" only guy off the bench.  He would be fifth on the depth chart at catcher behind Barajas, Fort, Morales and Fryer.  If the Pirates need a corner IF I think they look at Evans, Hague, Harrison, Navarro, and Mcgehee(all except for Evans are on the 40 man roster) before they consider Fox.  Your right, I should never say never, but if Fox makes this team out of spring a LOT of things will have had to go wrong.Slider

So, you're saying that he's got at least a 75% chance of making the team?

[The Moose]

2)  Jose Morales-  Under the radar signing that I like.  If Fort falters he can be optioned down and I'm pretty sure Barajas will not be healthy all season,  Morales is a LH hitting catcher who gets on base at a .360 clip.  That's about a 100 pts higher than Barajas career average.  He might not break camp but we will see him a t some point.  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates- 30%
Slider

Jose Morales has 2 out clauses in his minor league contract.  He can request his release if he's not on the team by March 31st.  And again, if he's not on the team by May 15th.

Meanwhile, McKenry has an option year left.

So, it's entirely possible that Morales will open the season with the Pirates, backing up Barajas, while McKenry opens the season in Indy, playing every day, and staying sharp.  And McKenry will then be called up, when Barajas goes on the DL.

Therefore, I'd put the odds of Morales making the opening day roster at closer to 50/50.   

[gamecckfn]

2)  Jose Morales-  Under the radar signing that I like.  If Fort falters he can be optioned down and I'm pretty sure Barajas will not be healthy all season,  Morales is a LH hitting catcher who gets on base at a .360 clip.  That's about a 100 pts higher than Barajas career average.  He might not break camp but we will see him a t some point.  Chance of breaking camp with the Pirates- 30%
Slider

Jose Morales has 2 out clauses in his minor league contract.  He can request his release if he's not on the team by March 31st.  And again, if he's not on the team by May 15th.

Meanwhile, McKenry has an option year left.

So, it's entirely possible that Morales will open the season with the Pirates, backing up Barajas, while McKenry opens the season in Indy, playing every day, and staying sharp.  And McKenry will then be called up, when Barajas goes on the DL.

Therefore, I'd put the odds of Morales making the opening day roster at closer to 50/50.   

I think that is still conservative, I would say McKenry has a 30% chance of making the team, not Morales.

[ECBucs]

I think odds are pretty good, there isn't anyone listed that should have a real good shot at making it.

[LeeFoo]

Very good stuff Slider.........imho, outside of Evans, most are probably AAA filler and injury callups. However, I do like taking a chance on Martis. I think Reyes is crap.

[bobster]

The only way I see Fox sticking is if Alvarez and Evans bomb in ST and begin the year at Indy. McGehee would start at 3B instead of being on the bench. Fox could then back up (or platoon) at 1B and be the 5th outfielder. He is only marginally a catcher and would not stick as the #2 guy behind the plate. Otherwise, maybe he goes to Indy and hopes for a call-up as a DH in interleague play. He's got power. He just doesn't play any postion well enough.

[wvbucco]

They may be bringing in UT guys that can also catch in a pinch in case we have 70 catchers go down with injuries again.  Was it last year that we had that happen?  I can't remember; it all runs together after a while.

[WTM]

They may be bringing in UT guys that can also catch in a pinch in case we have 70 catchers go down with injuries again.  Was it last year that we had that happen?  I can't remember; it all runs together after a while.

Usually, if you're a catcher at AA or higher, you have a good shot at a ML camp invite.  They need about a zillion catchers in camp.  I see Ramon Cabrera got an NRI.  I wouldn't be surprised if another catcher or two gets added late, like Carlos Paulino or Elias Diaz, or that Cutler guy they picked up.

[SammyKhalifa]

Pirates Sign Juan Cruz
By Tim Dierkes [February 1 at 12:38pm CST]

The Pirates signed reliever Juan Cruz to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, the team announced.

Cruz, 33, posted a 3.88 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, and 35.2% groundball rate for the Rays last year in 48 2/3 innings.  Cruz missed time in July with a groin strain, and his average fastball velocity dipped below 93 miles per hour for the first time in his career.

Cruz will compete for a bullpen job with other non-roster invitees such as Michael Crotta, Ryota Igarashi, Logan Kensing, Shairon Martis, Jo-Jo Reyes, Doug Slaten, and Tim Wood.

===============

seems like a good deal to get a guy like that on a minor league deal.

[WTM]

Surprised Cruz was available for a MiL deal.  He had a solid year with the Rays.

[ECBucs]

Maybe they will make a move with Hanrahan or somebody else in spring training.

Certainly are getting bullpen arms.