Some BA handbook stuff

[slider]

Recently recieved my BA prosoect handbook- Some highlights

- Some surprises in the top 30 for me include Vic Black at 19, Evan Chambers at 26 and Brandon Cumpton at 28.  I like Black, but as an oft injured reliever I don't hink he deserves top 30 billing at this point.  Chambers has to get his avg above .250 before I condifer him legit and Cumpton kind of flys under the radar.

-Top 30 guys from last year who didn't make this years list include Andrew Lambo(11), Diego Moreno(12), Nate Baker(17), Quincy Latimore(21), Jordy Mercer(22), Danny Moskos(26), Pribanic(28) and Matt Hague (29).  I don't necesarily agree with Mercer or Moskos being left off the list but that would be nitpicking on my part.

-Biggest drop from last season was Zach Von Rosenburg slipping 12 spots from #9 to number #21 this season

-Biggest jump from last year belonged to Robbie Grossman who shot up from #25 to #8 on this years list

-BA's pick as the top 2012 Pirate rookie is Justin Wilson, top breakout prospect is Mel Rojas JR, and the sleeper is RHP Tyler Waldron

-Some ex Pirates include Aaron Baker coming in at #14 on Baltimores list and Brett Lorin finishing 28th on Arizona's

-Of the 4 BA writers(Lingo, Callis, Manuel and Cooper) all agree that no other Pirates besides Cole and Taillon make the top 50 list.

-BA has added a new grading system this season, with each guy being graded on a 40-80 scale with a "risk" factor attached to each prospect.  Pirates have 6 guys who grade out at 60 or above(Cole, Taillon, Bell, Marte, Heredia, and Allie)  Allie is one of the few prospects in the entire handbook who recieves an "extreme" risk factor grade, meaning his upside is huge but there is a good chance he doesn't achieve it.

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[WTM]

-Some ex Pirates include Aaron Baker coming in at #14 on Baltimores list and Brett Lorin finishing 28th on Arizona's

Shows how weak the Orioles' system is now.  Arizona has a very strong system.  I hope we get Lorin back.

[slider]

-Some ex Pirates include Aaron Baker coming in at #14 on Baltimores list and Brett Lorin finishing 28th on Arizona's

Shows how weak the Orioles' system is now.  Arizona has a very strong system.  I hope we get Lorin back.

I can see no way Lorin makes the Diamondbacks roster unless they suffer an injury or two in Spring training!  With several relievers yet to sign, the Diamondbacks already have the following seven relievers fighting for spots.  Their rotation is also 5 deep with no openings.

J. Putz
D. Hernandez
B. Ziegler
C. Breslow
T. Saito
B. Shaw
J. Paterson

I guess it would be possible for a team like the Astos to claim Lorin when/if he has to go back through waivers.  But at this point I'm pretty sure Lorin will be in the Altoona rotaion come spring.  I would also assume he would most likely fall somewhere in the 25-30 range on the current Pirate top 30.  I too hope he makes it back to the Pirates.

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[WTM]

I can't see the D'backs carrying a Rule 5er.  They're in contention mode.  They're stocking up on veteran presence guys like Bloomquist, John McDonald and Geoff Blum.  And they've got the ultimate old school, spit-tobacco-on-it manager.  We're more likely to lose him to waivers.

[moschgatj]

Why does Mercer get so little love?  A shortstop who showed good power at AA and projects to stay at SS is something I would so much rather have than someone like Chambers.

[WTM]

Why does Mercer get so little love?  A shortstop who showed good power at AA and projects to stay at SS is something I would so much rather have than someone like Chambers.

Dunno.  I was puzzled at both rankings/non-rankings.

[bradlej31]

Why does Mercer get so little love?  A shortstop who showed good power at AA and projects to stay at SS is something I would so much rather have than someone like Chambers.

Dunno.  I was puzzled at both rankings/non-rankings.

Looking at wOBA and wRC+ I would say that Chambers is the better prospect.   Even at AA last year Mercer only had a OBP of .329

The day has past of weighting SLG and OBP equally.  OBP is way more important, hence the creation of wOBA.

[TNbucs]

Lambo dropping 20+ spots despite putting up a 782 OPS in the EL as a 22-year-old while Grossman rising 17 spots despite repeating A+ as a 21-year-old shows how fickle these rankings are.  In Lambo's case either they are putting way too much emphasis on his 185 AB's in AAA last season or they did a very poor job of evaluating him up until this year, or the system got a lot deeper which contradicts other things they say.

[slider]

Why does Mercer get so little love?  A shortstop who showed good power at AA and projects to stay at SS is something I would so much rather have than someone like Chambers.

I know the BA writers edit the handbook, but the fact that DK did the list last year and "members only" did it this year could have some effect on how things played out.

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[LeeFoo]

Despite wOBA, I totally agree with Mosch and WTM. A SS with pop is much more valuable than a middling OF prospect like Chambers.

[WTM]

Despite wOBA, I totally agree with Mosch and WTM. A SS with pop is much more valuable than a middling OF prospect like Chambers.

Apart from that point, Mercer has succeeded at AA and started to come around toward the end of his time in AAA.  I'm skeptical whether Chambers will make the transition to AA successfully.