Future Mccutchen trade

[Bucco Velo]

I don't buy that they will lose a lot of fans if the trade Cutch.  Yes there will be an outcry from the Nutting is cheap group, but everyone will come back if/when the team wins - with or without Cutch.

The problem is that you would once again be pushing that potential timeline back even further by trading the one established major league player on the roster.    And that fact that it is absolutely unnecessary considering his age and profile makes it that much more short-sighted, in my opinion.

[ECBucs]

I don't buy that they will lose a lot of fans if the trade Cutch.  Yes there will be an outcry from the Nutting is cheap group, but everyone will come back if/when the team wins - with or without Cutch.

The problem is that you would once again be pushing that potential timeline back even further by trading the one established major league player on the roster.    And that fact that it is absolutely unnecessary considering his age and profile makes it that much more short-sighted, in my opinion.

Unless the team was winning there would at least be stagnation of attendance and likely a decline.  IMO, in addition to buidling a winner the team needs to do all it can to get attendance to rise.  Supposedly it has sold more tickets for 2012 and it needs to see that the number goes up again in 2013.

[RJReynolds]

I don't buy that they will lose a lot of fans if the trade Cutch.  Yes there will be an outcry from the Nutting is cheap group, but everyone will come back if/when the team wins - with or without Cutch.

Oh they will lose fans alright. There is little doubt about that. Trading him away is basically an admission that winning is farther off...again. People have been jumping ship (walking the plank?) since they let go of Bonds and the streak began. There aren't many left. An entire generation knows nothing but losing teams. A trade of Cutch will definately send some over the edge never to return. The problem, however, is that people will still attend games at PNC because of the park itself, because of the opponent, because of the fireworks or the bobbleheads, or because they have nothing better to do on a particular night. So, the pushing back of the "being competitive" timeline won't really hurt the bottom line. And the saga shall continue.

In saying this, I hope and pray that I am wrong. I want to be wrong desperately. I want Bob Nutting to prove me wrong every single day. But every day that goes by without the kind of financial commitment it would take for the Pirates to be competitive year in and year out...every month...every year...my hopes just dwindle more and more.

RJR

[markson33]

I don't buy that they will lose a lot of fans if the trade Cutch.  Yes there will be an outcry from the Nutting is cheap group, but everyone will come back if/when the team wins - with or without Cutch.

Trading him away is basically an admission that winning is farther off...again.    Thats not true at all.  If trading Cutch allows you to fill in the last remaining holes then its a good plan.  Say Marte comes up and is 80% of the player that Cutch is, but you still don't have a shortstop.  Its called trading from a position of strength and most teams do it.


People have been jumping ship (walking the plank?) since they let go of Bonds and the streak began. There aren't many left. Apparently you missed the first half of last year.

The problem, however, is that people will still attend games at PNC because of the park itself, because of the opponent, because of the fireworks or the bobbleheads, or because they have nothing better to do on a particular night. I'm confused, will people stop coming or keep coming.  Your contradicting yourself.

[RJReynolds]

What I am saying is that "fans" will be lost. But "people" (amorphous bodies in seats there for the experience not because they are fans) will still show up. And I do agree with you to a point. You are correct that the first half of last year showed that people will still come to support the team if they become competitive again. But you are assuming that a trade of Cutch is going to happen to fill in the last holes needed. What if there is still too many holes and he is being traded much the same as Bay was? In such a case, the trade would most certainly signify the admission of not being too close. And to be quite honest, looking at the Pirates system at the moment, the thought that they would be that close to competing through in house options looks like a pipe dream at best.

And let's get Marte some time at AAA before we think he could be 80% of Cutch at any point in the foreseeable future.

RJR

[PMike]

I don't think trading McCutchen will make a dent in the fan base.  Will people be angry?  Yes.  Will a few leave?  Probably.  But honestly, after 20 years worth of losing and 20 years worth of trading McCutchens, the people who are fans now, are probably here for good.  The Bucs are at their baseline in my opinion.  There isn't much to lose at this point.

[ECBucs]

I disagree that team is at baseline for fans  last seasons surprise contention led to increase in attendance  prior to season the hope was to stay even w 2010.  So there are still fans that will go away for awhile unless the team is doing well

[The Moose]

First, no clue why you are going with WAR, that is not used to determine how much a player gets in arbitration or how much the player will get in FA. 

No, but it's been proven to be a fairly good guideline.

There are plenty of reasons why McCutchen would not have a WAR of 7.1, injury is only one reason. Also, you are giving McCutchen and additional 2/3 of a season, so he would really need to have a WAR of 10.6 in 2012.

If you want to dismiss McCutchen's 2009 season, when he only played 2/3 of the season in Pittsburgh, fine.  In that case, he'd only need 5.6 WAR in 2012, to average 5 WAR/year.  You can't dismiss his 2009 WAR, then count it as a season played.

I said these guys were all similar hitters at the same age.  You must have missed that. 

If you're really comparing Andrew McCutchen to Adam Jones, Corey Patterson, and Rocco Baldelli, then I guess you don't think the Pirates should sign McCutchen to a multi-year deal.  And you're wondering what this whole thread is about.

Jones is considered a terrible OF, so his WAR is killed because of it.  I doubt he is getting paid less because of it.

Absolutely Jones' fielding gets considered, when the O's determine what to offer him in 2012 (his arb2 season). His fielding, the fact that he's not much of a base stealer (12 SBs is his career high, last year), and his .319 career OBP - they all are a factor.

[markson33]

Recent history doesn't really support the notion that people won't come to the ballpark if their favorite player is traded.  Attendance went up the year after Giles was traded and went down nominally (by about 700) after Bay was traded.  Both years attendance was right around 20,000 which is that steady base number whether the team is any good or not.

[gamecckfn]

I don't buy that they will lose a lot of fans if the trade Cutch.  Yes there will be an outcry from the Nutting is cheap group, but everyone will come back if/when the team wins - with or without Cutch.

Trading him away is basically an admission that winning is farther off...again.    Thats not true at all.  If trading Cutch allows you to fill in the last remaining holes then its a good plan.  Say Marte comes up and is 80% of the player that Cutch is, but you still don't have a shortstop.  Its called trading from a position of strength and most teams do it.


People have been jumping ship (walking the plank?) since they let go of Bonds and the streak began. There aren't many left. Apparently you missed the first half of last year.

The problem, however, is that people will still attend games at PNC because of the park itself, because of the opponent, because of the fireworks or the bobbleheads, or because they have nothing better to do on a particular night. I'm confused, will people stop coming or keep coming.  Your contradicting yourself.

Would not the fans have already left when they traded Jay Bell?  Giles?  Or Bay?  Or McLouth?  All of these guys were fan favorites.

The average attendence in 1992 was 22585, and then in 1993 it was 20378, 10% drop.  They had basically the same drop the year before.  And from 2002 to 2003.  The only time they had real big drops was after the strike and year two at PNC.

[Tintin]

Recent history doesn't really support the notion that people won't come to the ballpark if their favorite player is traded.  Attendance went up the year after Giles was traded and went down nominally (by about 700) after Bay was traded.  Both years attendance was right around 20,000 which is that steady base number whether the team is any good or not.

I dont think that either of those guys are beloved like Cutch is.

[JollyRoger]

Recent history doesn't really support the notion that people won't come to the ballpark if their favorite player is traded.  Attendance went up the year after Giles was traded and went down nominally (by about 700) after Bay was traded.  Both years attendance was right around 20,000 which is that steady base number whether the team is any good or not.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance

But if you want to get to the 30,000 number that an average ML team has, (See link) then you have to invest and show the fans that you are serious about competing. If the Pirates fielded a competitive club that consistently played meaningful September games in a pennant chase; I am sure they would see their average attendance hit 30,000.

[gamecckfn]

Recent history doesn't really support the notion that people won't come to the ballpark if their favorite player is traded.  Attendance went up the year after Giles was traded and went down nominally (by about 700) after Bay was traded.  Both years attendance was right around 20,000 which is that steady base number whether the team is any good or not.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance

But if you want to get to the 30,000 number that an average ML team has, (See link) then you have to invest and show the fans that you are serious about competing. If the Pirates fielded a competitive club that consistently played meaningful September games in a pennant chase; I am sure they would see their average attendance hit 30,000.

Did not the most recent time this happened.  I guess that could change, but I would imagine it would have this past season.