Pedro Alvarez?

[Woudrow]

Whats your prediction?

The most unpredictable variable that will have a big impact on this upcoming season.

[bbfbl]

The poor performance by Pedro last year alone has produced great doubt about this team.  If you have a guy like him in the 4 or 5 hole producing over 30 HR and 100 RBI you have a totally different offensive outlook.  Whether or not he gets to that level is anyone's guess, but I am leaning on the side that he can get to that level.

My prediction for 2012:  BA around .250, 27 HR, 89 RBI.  Will play in roughly 135 games. 

[DocJon49]

I predict: as Pedro goes, so goes the Pirates. That's all I can predict, but it's a safe bet.

[RJReynolds]

I predict that he will be more focused on making contact than hitting the long ball. So instead of a .225 average with 30 homers I think that we will see a .255 batting average with 17 homers this year. But I still think he strikes out 180 times if he plays the full year.

RJR

[Possum]

I predict that he will be more focused on making contact than hitting the long ball. So instead of a .225 average with 30 homers I think that we will see a .255 batting average with 17 homers this year. But I still think he strikes out 180 times if he plays the full year.

RJR

You got part of it correct.  Pedro needs to focus on making contact.  Make that solid contact.  But I think your estimate of 17 HRs is a bit low given Pedro's natural power.  I look for 25 or so if he can get back to making contact.  As for the Ks, that is anyones guess.

[gamecckfn]

I predict that he will be more focused on making contact than hitting the long ball. So instead of a .225 average with 30 homers I think that we will see a .255 batting average with 17 homers this year. But I still think he strikes out 180 times if he plays the full year.

RJR

I will say he hits 20 out and hits .250/.345/.475.  I am sure the K total will be close to what you have.

[bradlej31]

I disagree.  

I think he was too tentative last year and didn't try to drive the ball.  He needs to have an Adam Dunn like season (40 HRs 180 Ks). Once he starts hit 450 ft bombs off of pitchers the BBs will start coming and the Ks will lower (some).

[blackmax]

Flashback to Fangraphs interview of Clint Hurdle on Pedro:

On Pedro Alvarez: “Pedro Alvarez is still learning. The success he had in 2010 obviously caught everybody’s attention; it put Pedro in the public eye. He’s got a chance to have a run-producing bat. I really believe that hasn’t changed, regardless of what happened last season.

“One of the biggest challenges for hitters in the major leagues is that after being up for three months, the league has pretty good intelligence on you. Information travels quickly. What you are doing well, they find a counterpunch for. They counterpunched Pedro early in the season and he never really got himself to a position to throw a counterpunch back. He got away from his game. I think he maybe became a little too passive.

“We don’t want him to work on having a perfect swing; we want him to have a dangerous swing, an impact swing. He was vulnerable this past year to soft and spin. The year before, he hit soft and spin. He also didn’t miss many fastballs in the zone.

“Everything starts with a thought. There are things that paralyze young hitters. It usually takes some experience and I think it usually takes more than 500 at bats. It’s closer to 900 minor league at bats and 1,500 big league at bats. It’s the ability to not focus so much on everything the pitcher has. They put too much emphasis on the four pitches the guy throws and not enough on the one they want to hit. That’s a transition I try to take good young hitters to.

“Say that a pitcher has a go-to pitch for when he’s behind the count, a strike-one pitch, and a kill pitch. Well, let’s identify what we want to hit. We want to see the ball up; that’s number one. All right. And we want to see it either in or out. Don’t try to hit all of them.

“I think that one of the things Pedro did last year was get into the trap of trying to hit every pitch somewhere, instead of being more selective and looking to do damage in the strike zone.”

[izzman]

Flashback to Fangraphs interview of Clint Hurdle on Pedro:

On Pedro Alvarez: “Pedro Alvarez is still learning. The success he had in 2010 obviously caught everybody’s attention; it put Pedro in the public eye. He’s got a chance to have a run-producing bat. I really believe that hasn’t changed, regardless of what happened last season.

“One of the biggest challenges for hitters in the major leagues is that after being up for three months, the league has pretty good intelligence on you. Information travels quickly. What you are doing well, they find a counterpunch for. They counterpunched Pedro early in the season and he never really got himself to a position to throw a counterpunch back. He got away from his game. I think he maybe became a little too passive.

“We don’t want him to work on having a perfect swing; we want him to have a dangerous swing, an impact swing. He was vulnerable this past year to soft and spin. The year before, he hit soft and spin. He also didn’t miss many fastballs in the zone.

“Everything starts with a thought. There are things that paralyze young hitters. It usually takes some experience and I think it usually takes more than 500 at bats. It’s closer to 900 minor league at bats and 1,500 big league at bats. It’s the ability to not focus so much on everything the pitcher has. They put too much emphasis on the four pitches the guy throws and not enough on the one they want to hit. That’s a transition I try to take good young hitters to.

“Say that a pitcher has a go-to pitch for when he’s behind the count, a strike-one pitch, and a kill pitch. Well, let’s identify what we want to hit. We want to see the ball up; that’s number one. All right. And we want to see it either in or out. Don’t try to hit all of them.

“I think that one of the things Pedro did last year was get into the trap of trying to hit every pitch somewhere, instead of being more selective and looking to do damage in the strike zone.”

darn. I Love Hurdle.

[mouse]

I'm in the school that says that players develop in fits and starts, moving forward, dropping back, that sort of thing. Players have to learn the skills. I'm expecting Pedro to be much improved this year over last. Twenty-five HRs wouldn't surprise me but I also expect a .260 plus batting average.

[markson33]

Pedro needs to be more agressive and not worry about his swing.  See the ball - hit the ball (hard).  Don't think about it.  If he does that he could be an Adam Dunn type.  I'm guessing that we might see something like .240/.300/.450 this year with 25 HR and 160 K.

[Max Power]

I surely have not given up on Pedro based on last season.  And don't call me Shirley. 

Hopefully he'll find a comfort level at the plate and resume hitting at the level we think he can.  Some of that will be effected by who is batting next in the order too.  Gotta hope he has something to drive some of the time.  3rd in the order with a clean-up hitter that is an actual threat would help.

[Dogknot3]

I am not worried about Alvarez.  He is a huge bat and can easily be that threat for years to come.  If he is hitting the ball, his strike outs won't matter.

[timozbuck]

I am not worried about Alvarez.  He is a huge bat and can easily be that threat for years to come.  If he is hitting the ball, his strike outs won't matter.

How can you not be worried about Pedro?  Did you watch him last year at all?

I don't think he'll be as bad as he looked in '11, but to assume he will be above average at this point is a stretch IMO.

[bobster]

Alvarez seems to have the tools. We were all glad when he was drafted and the Pirates would have been widely criticized if they had not drafted him. Some players take longer than others to reach their potential. Some never reach it. He was drafted to fill a need and the Pirates will suffer if he fails to fill it. If it takes too long, he may be close to leaving by the time he becomes a force. So let's hope he develops into the power hitter they need and that he does it soon.

I remember Bob Bailey, who was signed at age 18 to be a future slugger, made his ML debut at age 19 and was disappointing his first few years. They gave up on him by age 23 and traded him to LA for an aging Maury Wills. Bailey later became a significant part of the Expos' lineup in the 1970s. Alvarez is older and was drafted from college. He should develop faster. Let's hope that Alvarez' best years are with the Pirates.