Dead on accurate article by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports

[RJReynolds]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_hot_stove_daily_pittsburgh_pirates_losing_011312

I'm surprised noones posted this yet. Actually I'm not very surprised given the tone of the article. It was surprising to me to read someone on the national level get it so right with regard to the Pirates. Usually you read some article and they are talking about how they are going to miss the bat of Adam Laroche from last year's team when he wasn't here to begin with....or some such nonsense. I chalk that up to noone recognizing the fact that the Pirates are still a major league team and don't care enough to invest much time in knowing anything substantive about them.

Passan nails it, however. Well done sir.

RJR

[parkerbatteryday]

Especially this part....LOL!!!!

Pirates in Haiku
 
Two more losing years
And Pittsburgh’s futility
Can legally drink

[izzman]

Well done Mr. Passan.

Question do we know for sure that a 6 year $60 M Cutch deal would do it?
If so if I had a controlling interest in the team I'd say go for it. You can't get much better assurance than with Cutch. If we do nothing he probably clear 20-30 M in arb years. So at most we are paying about 13M per year in his 1st 3 FA years. If we try and get a comparable talent in FA you are paying for an extended period of years beyond their prime. I'm not saying it is a steal but it is imminently fair.

On the other hand it might be quite possible that Cutch just doesn;t want to stay here any longer than he has to. In that case not much we can do and the Pirates brass will have to take the publicity hit and trade him in the next year.

What ya guys think?

[TNbucs]

Glad you pointed this out given that many of us have said it all has to start with a strong farm system and Passan comments that

the Pirates do boast one of the better farm systems in baseball.

Of course Passan refers to the "ill-advised" trade deadline moves that he praised back on July 31, so take his current opinion for what it's worth.

I can't recall a Passan article that has impressed me, whether he's praising the Pirates as he was back in July or criticizing them.  Nothing wrong with the current article other than stating the obvious (moves this winter won't turn the team around, doubts about Presley, need to extend McCutchen, strong farm system).  The only point I really don't agree with is the need to extend Walker at this time--he's 26 and we control him for five more years.

[RJReynolds]

Glad you pointed this out given that many of us have said it all has to start with a strong farm system and Passan comments that

the Pirates do boast one of the better farm systems in baseball.

Of course Passan refers to the "ill-advised" trade deadline moves that he praised back on July 31, soo take his current opinion for what it's worth.

I can't recall a Passan article that has impressed me, whether he's praising the Pirates as he was back in July or criticizing them.  Nothing wrong with the current article other than stating the obvious (moves this winter won't turn the team around, doubts about Presley, need to extend McCutchen, strong farm system).  The only point I really don't agree with is the need to extend Walker at this time--he's 26 and we control him for five more years.

Absolutely. To me the Pirates have a top heavy but still top ten farm system...and that is absolutely where it needs to come from. But Passan is also correct that the Pirates continuing to tread water is just wasting peak years of players they will likely soon lose...especially if they continue to cheap out and don't extend Cutch. Also...their continued fumbling at acquiring what they need at the major league level does not make me feel very comfortable that they wil suddenly figure out how to get what they need if and when the time ever arrives that they are close to contention.

RJR

[The Moose]

Question do we know for sure that a 6 year $60 M Cutch deal would do it?
 

If done now, before McCutchen has a big 2012 season, 6/$60M would probably get it done.  However, I don't think the Pirates FO would view 6/$60M as McCutchen "sharing the risk", very much.  So, don't hold your breath.

On the other hand it might be quite possible that Cutch just doesn;t want to stay here any longer than he has to. In that case not much we can do and the Pirates brass will have to take the publicity hit and trade him in the next year.

What ya guys think?

The "publicity hit" would be eased somewhat, if Starling Marte got off to a strong start, once he's promoted to Pittsburgh.  But as to your point, if McCutchen has a really good 2012 season - let's say a .286 BA, 25 HRs, 100+ RBIs, 35 SBs, wins an NL OF GG, finishes in the top 10 in NL MVP balloting, and so on - he might start wanting Torii Hunter money, instead of Justin Upton money, to sign with the Pirates, long term.  And who could really blame him?

And if McCutchen maintained the type of numbers I described into 2013 and beyond, he could get real expensive, real fast, going year-to-year in his arb years.  So, yes, I think you're correct in your assessment.  With Marte waiting in the wings, the Pirates would trade McCutchen, once they realized that he'd want too close to market value to sign long-term, and they were going to have to pay him more and more, in Arb2, and Arb3.  

Meaning McCutchen could become an ex-Pirate, as soon as the 2013 trading deadline.  They'll either sign him long-term, or trade him, but they won't go year-to-year with him, over his 3 arb years, if he puts up the numbers he's capable of.  

[parkerbatteryday]

If the Pirates continue to draft and sign high-profile, high-performance kids in the draft, you'll start seeing their windows of "life as a Pirate" to shrink from the previously expected 6 years of control to 3 and 4 years as the Pirates won't "internally value" them enough to pay them what arbitrators think they are worth when they go to arbitration. The McCutchen situation is going to indicate strongly whether they are willing to pay market value for any of their players at any time. I'm betting they will trade McCutcheon before his 5th year to avoid paying him what he's worth, which is likely to be between 11 and 13M if he continues to perform well. That should send the signal to those still on the fence as to what this ownership group is all about. I've seen enough already and I think this is a highly likely scenario. Coonelly has already made some negative comments about Cutch and that "it takes two" to make a deal which is shorthand that they want a sweetheart deal from Cutch and lots of concessions so that they don't have to pay him what he's worth. Yea...I'm negative about it, but I've seen enough to know when they really aren't serious about signing Cutch...at least yet. A 6/60 deal would change my mind a bit though, because that's about what it's going to take.

[Tintin]

Coonelly has already made some negative comments about Cutch and that "it takes two" to make a deal which is shorthand that they want a sweetheart deal from Cutch and lots of concessions so that they don't have to pay him what he's worth. Yea...I'm negative about it, but I've seen enough to know when they really aren't serious about signing Cutch...at least yet. A 6/60 deal would change my mind a bit though, because that's about what it's going to take.

I disagree with this statement.  I have never seen any indication or interest from Cutch to sign any kind of extension.  Everything I've read is Thaddeus team has wanted to discuss it with Cutch.
I'm not saying that the team isn't trying to get a sweetheart deal, but we don't know that for sure.

[speedloader88]

I know one thing...........Mr. Nutting does not think as much of McCuthen as we do.  He is enamored with Marte coming up through the ranks.  It is my opinion that Cutch will be traded before he signs a long term deal and that we will start the process over again with Marte.  This is my prediction based on a conversation with Mr. Nutting last summer during the winning streak.  Many things can change and I hope they do, but at the time of that conversation, I walked away with a clear picture that Cutch would not be a Pirate when he becomes a real star in the league.

[scrapiron]

I know one thing...........Mr. Nutting does not think as much of McCuthen as we do.  He is enamored with Marte coming up through the ranks.  It is my opinion that Cutch will be traded before he signs a long term deal and that we will start the process over again with Marte.  This is my prediction based on a conversation with Mr. Nutting last summer during the winning streak.  Many things can change and I hope they do, but at the time of that conversation, I walked away with a clear picture that Cutch would not be a Pirate when he becomes a real star in the league.

You've talked to Mr. Nutting about this? I certainly have never read any such thing.  Would you be so kind as to provide your evidence for such a bold statement, please.

[markson33]

Evidence?  Are you looking for a picture with Bob Nutting holding a newspaper from that date.

Regardless of whether Nutting likes Cutch or not, it clearly seems that the team and player are not on the same page.  I don't think Passan or anybody else knows what the team offered or what Cutch is looking for.  Its very possible that Cutch simply doesn't want to be here.

I'm not impressed with the article because Passan doesn't offer any solutions and just bashes the team for not spending enough.  Duh!  It doesn't take great journalistic skills to say that the Pirates might have a better chance of winning if they would spend $90 million.

[scrapiron]

Evidence?  Are you looking for a picture with Bob Nutting holding a newspaper from that date.

Regardless of whether Nutting likes Cutch or not, it clearly seems that the team and player are not on the same page.  I don't think Passan or anybody else knows what the team offered or what Cutch is looking for.  Its very possible that Cutch simply doesn't want to be here.

I'm not impressed with the article because Passan doesn't offer any solutions and just bashes the team for not spending enough.  Duh!  It doesn't take great journalistic skills to say that the Pirates might have a better chance of winning if they would spend $90 million.

Really? You are trying to make my post sound ridiculous?  I guess you are OK when someone claims to know the mind of another person yet doesn't supply a quotation or one scintilla of support for doing so.  Too many people here make posts just like that as if it's the absolute truth and not just some wild personal opinion.  

In this case, (after reviewing old posts, I see speedloader posted about talking to Nutting last summer and BN was hoping Marte would be in Pittsburgh soon enough, but anything beyond that was pure inferrence.  Speedloader also stated in that thread that Nutting liked the short term deals in order to keep the competition level higher.  This seems to fly in the face of the conclusion that speed now draws from that conversation unless there was something very specific he did not share. 

[dave3BA]

For what it's worth, speedloader88 has mentioned this several times, and has been very consistent.

In my opinion, you can't make such a statement because of just one conversation, but each person has their own view and I don't know the exact wording Nutting used either.

[RJReynolds]

Let's just hope that the Pirates are not done yet, because the article is absolutely correct. We continue to simply waste a year of control at a time of the player(s) that can help us get to the next level. They are about to get more expensive, and thus less attractive to ownership.

Unless you subscribe to the Tim Williams school of thought that the offseason has been "ideal". A 90-95 loss team being "ideal" is just so very Piratey.

RJR

[izzman]

“They’re sloppy,” one scout said, and that sounds about right. It takes institutional inadequacy to go 20 years without a winning season, and part of it goes back to the culture. If a team knows it can’t spend money, it must not just preach but practice the things in its realm: the defense, the baserunning, the strikethrowing – the fundamentals.

Personally, I attribute the sloppy play to the Pirates strategy of keeping their best hitters at the most valuable fielding positions as long as possible. Also as far as making mental mistakes I thought they improved over the years before. Generally I think the Pirates have been "sloppy" because they play so many AAAA players that are just trying to keep their head above water. It's harder to give the "little things" of the game their due when you are not sure if you can hit a major league breaking ball.

Also I believe Nutting and Coonely talk openly with fans. They seem to go out of their way to do that and it counter-balances the NH speak. That said I don't know that they are letting slip any secrets really? What worries me is when the owner is so enamored by a AA player (Marte). Reminds me of KM when he proudly boasted about the Pirates BA top ten. The front-office should be the most conservative when talking about their prospects. To hype them up does not protect them during the develoment and continues to sell the fanbase on the future.