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Disgustingly, it appears that BC will again need to try and field a team with a payroll in the range of $55 mil, or about $35 mil less than when the team last made the play-offs, and this at a time when many major league payrolls and individual player salaries are surging. I loath Nutting and his business model that knee caps the Pirates and ruins the dreams of life-long and young Pirate fans alike. That said, I have chosen to remain a Pirate fan. Recognizing the severe salary constraints confronting BC, I offer my thoughts on how he could allocate his limited resources in making improvements in 2023 and helping to jump start the team to further advancements (more wins) in 2024.
First, some positives:
1) The Pirates (for the first time in a while as the Polanco contract is now off the books) have no bad long-term contracts. Only Hayes and Reynolds are signed for next year, and Hayes is the only player signed beyond next season. And, while Hayes' contract checks in at $10 mil next year, it is only $7 - $8 mil for the next 6 seasons. At present, the Pirates have a total of $16.75 mil committed to next year's payroll between Hayes and Reynolds.
2) The Pirates are not facing any significant arbitration cases with respect to total salary. Only 6 players are eligible for arbitration (Stephenson, Newman, Andujar, Underwood, Keller, and Brubaker), and the highest estimated arbitration salary is Newman at $2.8 mil. And, as noted in the MLB Trade Rumors article, several of the above could be released, although releasing any of the above would not do a lot to boost available payroll to commit to other players. As such, players that are released can be based on value to the team (read talent) rather than cost. Few other teams are in a similar position.
3) Most players on the team are not eligible for arbitration as they have less than 3 years of service, thus they will earn between the league minimum and $800,000. This likely will be the case for at least 12 and more likely up to 18 players on the team. This likely will result in a total payroll commitment of about $18 mil.
So, some moves I would pursue.
1) Although it is not adding to the current roster, I believe the Bucs should offer 2 long-term contracts to current pitchers:
a) Based on this season's performance, I would offer Keller a 5 year deal to buy out his 3 years of arbitration eligibility and his first 2 years of free agency. As he is scheduled to earn about $2.8 mil in arbitration, perhaps a 2023 boost to $4.5 mil, a 2024 salary in the range of $6.5 mil, a 2025 salary in the range of $8 mil, and 2 free agent years in the range of $10 or $12 mil could interest him. The cost of talent is escalating rapidly, and if Keller is now the real deal (as he appears to be), now is the time to commit to him. Keller is still only 26 years old.
b) The second pitcher would be Contreras. As Surg noted, the Braves inked Strider to a 6 year - $75 million deal. Contreras did not have anywhere near Strider's stats, but he has shown promise. Strider's deal pays him little in the next 2 seasons $1 mil each year), increasing to $4 mil in 2025, but then jumps dramatically to $20 and $22 mil in its last 2 years. I would suggest that the Bucs approach Contreras with a front-loaded deal. Offer him 6 years with an option and pay him something like $45 - $50 mil over the life of the deal. Perhaps $5 mil in 2023 and 2024 (meaning he would earn about $10 mil instead of $2 mil), with increases to $6 mil in 2025 and $8 mil in 2026, $10 mil in 2027, and $12 mil in 2028. To date, Contreras hasn't earned much in his career; a $250,000 signing bonus in 2016, minor league salaries for the next 4+ years, and this year was his first major league salary. Contreras could be a bust or could be injured, but he appears to be talented and having a moderate cost rotation for future teams could be a real asset.
2) The team should avoid wasting money on crap. The Pirates now have enough middling talent in their minor league system that they don't need to take flyers on marginal major league players who are more expensive, or who have no future with the team. Although I supported his signing last year, avoid going for Tsutugo or the like who cost $4 mil, or players who are too one dimensional such as Vogelbach. And, if Roberto Perez wants to come back to the Pirates, it should be on a contract that is less than $5 mil. Tsutugo and Perez produced very little for the $9 mil in commitment, and the best thing about signing Vogelbach could be Holderman, if he returns to health. Also, no more players along the lines of VanMeter, Allen, or Collins, even though their issue was talent and not salary cost.
3) Quintana turned out to be a great signing last year. He pitched well in Pittsburgh, he was inexpensive, and his trade helped to acquire talent that may help in the longer term. In quickly scanning the list of free agent pitchers, there may not be another Quintana among them; particularly someone who would sign for a paltry $2 mil. On the inexpensive side, perhaps Zach Davies would be an option. Michael Lorenzen, who was hurt (shoulder) for part of the year, could be a mid-range option (he earned $6.75 mil for the Angels last year. I believe it would be wise to add another starting pitcher from outside the organization; someone who like Quintana could be traded at the deadline if the team again flounders in 2023, or if the team starts to turn it around, who could remain on the roster for the season .
4) The Pirates bullpen wavered between acceptable, at times, and downright abysmal for too much of the year. If Holderman and DeLosSantos are healthy, perhaps the team has 2 folks who could pitch meaningful innings. Bednar clearly has value, but perhaps would have more value as a trade piece than keeping him. I am particularly concerned with his control after his injury. If he lacks control, his value to the Pirates as a dependable 'outs' pitcher really sinks. Crowe, DeJong, Ramirez, Banuelos, and even Stephenson demonstrated some ability from time to time. All in all, a rather fungible group. I would like BC to focus on acquiring pitchers who could go more than 1 inning. Wilson could be an internal option, and could have more value as a reliever than as a potential starter.
5) With respect to first base, I don't want the team to pursue a player like Hosmer (who I doubt would waive his no trade clause to come to Pittsburgh), Aguilar, or the like. While I continue to believe that Cruz should be an option, I would be content with giving him the first 3 months of next season at short to see if his concentration and dependability improves. I also believe that next year's ban on 'radical' shifts may help him to adjust, along with convincing him that he doesn't need to believe he can catch any fly ball short of the outfield fence and to rely more on his outfielders. So, I would give Andujar a shot at first, and I would tell him now that this is the team's plan. I would also start working with Mitchell at first. A Mitchell/Andujar platoon could be an option to see if either can adjust to major league pitching. Within the next year, I believe either Davis or Rodriguez could be real options at first.
6) With so little money to bring in any significant talent from outside of the organization, the Bucs are largely going to need to focus on bringing out every ounce of talent that they can from the young players on the current roster. They, like all teams, will need to consider how the end to radical shifting (no more 2nd baseman playing mid-right field) will create more opportunities for getting men on base, and to help their hitters adjust to a change in their approach to hitting. Even though he has little power, Bae may be their best option for LF .
They need to hope that Oviedo and Ortiz, along with Contreras and Keller, can continue to grow, and that Brubaker can regularly take the ball every 5th day and pitch to an ERA around 4. Also, with a regular spring training, they need to have their starters being ready to go 5+ at the start of the season.
Oh well, it is still October. Like all year's, anxious to see how the off-season unfolds. I hope it involves more than yesterday's dumpster diving for Sulser and Sanchez, and moving on from Godoy, but in most likelihood, that is what we will see.
Note to BC - Please ask your analytics department to prepare a montage of all the times that Rabelo waived a player home that he was thrown out vs when he waived a player home (in a tight situation) in which the player scored. Rabelo is a lousy 3rd base coach. He must go.
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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates (MLBTR) (Read 5071 times)
