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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Archer/Kela phase 1 (Read 1085 times)
pghpaulatl
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Archer/Kela phase 1
Oct 4th, 2018 at 7:22am
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Maybe I'm just an optimist but I really believe the backlash of trading AM and Cole and the drop in attendance due to it led to the trades for Archer & Kela, especially Archer and we're going to see more for 2019.
First we have a low payroll that's going to get lower as we jettison Harrison and Mercer, that $50M Disney payment that  disappeared into a pocket and MOST importantly the upcoming TV negotiations in 2019.
I see all these factors leading to key FA signings, obviously it takes two to make a deal, however it just makes too much business sense and long term value to do something big now while negotiating the TV contract. I'm not saying they will sign Machado, but I really think that they will add some expensive pieces that could take the payroll to at least $100-$120M depending on who they can attract.
I've been a Bucs fan since the late 1950's and I'm more optimistic for next year than I've ever been because the stars are aligning for a perfect storm.
Agree or disagree?
  
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SammyKhalifa
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #1 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 9:00am
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Where would you spend that money to get us to $120MM?  Most of the roster is set.  I could see an IFer and an OFer, and I guess you can always get another starter even if you think we're set. 

Outfield is tricky depending on where your opinion lies on Dickerson I guess, but I also wouldn't want to wait and hope on Polanco.  I'd get one  for sure but don't think that's where you'd buy a big FA.

I think you can always make room for a really good starter, but they went a distance that way with the Archer trade. 

With the late bad news about our pen I expect a pickup there, but I don't know if that's where you spend $10MM or so on a guy. 

That leaves us with the Infield.  They won't give up on Josh Bell.  I expect a FA pickup at third or short.

Now who's available like that?

Elvis Andrus (30) — can opt out of remaining four years and $58MM
Asdrubal Cabrera (33)
Alcides Escobar (32)
Eduardo Escobar (30)
Freddy Galvis (29)
Marwin Gonzalez (30)
Adeiny Hechavarria (30)
Jose Iglesias (29)
Manny Machado (26)
Jordy Mercer (32)
Eduardo Nuñez (32) — $5MM player option with a $2MM buyout
Jose Reyes (36)
Eric Sogard (33)

I don't know who there you'd want to give a giant payday to.  I like the idea of bringing back Hechavarria back for support for those positions, and I've mentioned Asdrubal Cabrera before.  Or just get Mercer to return is fine.  But even if they want to spend big money on a guy (forgetting the arguments over whether this is true) I'm just sure what the target would be.
« Last Edit: Oct 4th, 2018 at 9:08am by SammyKhalifa »  
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Carolina Bucco
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #2 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 9:18am
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Trying to keep it realistic and within reason based on the way the Pirates operate ... Under those constraints I would do this:

* Sign Granderson for RF
* Sign Hechavarria and start him at SS
* Sign Matt Adams for another LH power bat
* Sign 1 legit LH starter (somebody like Gio Gonzalez).

Each of those signings would help the club will all being relatively realistic and fitting into "the Pirates way."

We need power. We need LH power. And we need a LH starter.

I am not ready at all to give Newman the starting SS job. I would rather go with a Gold Glove caliber defender (with a weak bat) and have him anchor the infield defense.
  
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Bobster
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #3 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 9:56am
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As it stands now the 2019 roster would have 17 players making the minimum or little over it. Dickerson and Kela are arb eligible, which I suspect would come to about 10 million combined. The rest are Cervelli (11.5 mil), Marte (10.3), Nova (9.1), Archer (7.6), Polanco (6.1) and Vazquez (4.5). That shapes up to around 70 million total. I'm guessing Dickerson will get about 7 mil in arb so if they don't keep him the payroll would be closer to 60 mil.

The acquisition of reasonably priced Archer and Kela was in line with Nutting's modest spending policy. There's no evidence that this signals a new philosophy of significantly higher payroll. Hypothetically, they could let Dickerson walk, put Frazier in LF and sign a 2Bman. Or they could let Dickerson walk and sign an OFer. Or they could keep Dickerson in LF, Frazier at 2B and sign a SS. In any event, the roster would not undergo too many changes and the payroll would still be in the 85-90 mil range. 

Then again, Nutting may be giddy about a payroll of roughly 70 mil, stand pat and make no significant additions.


  
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Bobster
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #4 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 10:05am
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Kang is still a question. They could exercise the 5.5 mil option or try to make a new deal for less or not keep him at all. If they keep him at 5.5 mil, it makes it less likely they will spend much for another bat.
  
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Ecbucs
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #5 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 10:14am
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Bobster wrote on Oct 4th, 2018 at 9:56am:
As it stands now the 2019 roster would have 17 players making the minimum or little over it. Dickerson and Kela are arb eligible, which I suspect would come to about 10 million combined. The rest are Cervelli (11.5 mil), Marte (10.3), Nova (9.1), Archer (7.6), Polanco (6.1) and Vazquez (4.5). That shapes up to around 70 million total. I'm guessing Dickerson will get about 7 mil in arb so if they don't keep him the payroll would be closer to 60 mil.

The acquisition of reasonably priced Archer and Kela was in line with Nutting's modest spending policy. There's no evidence that this signals a new philosophy of significantly higher payroll. Hypothetically, they could let Dickerson walk, put Frazier in LF and sign a 2Bman. Or they could let Dickerson walk and sign an OFer. Or they could keep Dickerson in LF, Frazier at 2B and sign a SS. In any event, the roster would not undergo too many changes and the payroll would still be in the 85-90 mil range. 

Then again, Nutting may be giddy about a payroll of roughly 70 mil, stand pat and make no significant additions.



I would say they are more in the 75 million range, as Dickerson made 5.9 this season so he will most likely go up to 8 or even 9 million.  Kela made 1.2 so he should make over 2 in 2019.

I do think the payroll is low enough that they can bring somebody in and still have payroll less than 90 million. 

Hechavarria is ok with me but he needs to signed as insurance and not promised a starting spot.  I like Gonzalez as first choice because of versatility, a little power , switch hitter and only 30. Of course he may have no interest in Bucs. 

  
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notes34
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #6 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 10:15am
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Bobster wrote on Oct 4th, 2018 at 10:05am:
Kang is still a question. They could exercise the 5.5 mil option or try to make a new deal for less or not keep him at all. If they keep him at 5.5 mil, it makes it less likely they will spend much for another bat.

I hope they have a handshake deal in place with him. I would not however go into 2019 with the expectations that he is the starting 3b. If he can still hit (I think he can) that's a great bat coming off the bench or getting starts between 3rd and SS. I would suspect he could get by at 1st also. I desperately want an upgrade over Moran. He is not a starting caliber 3b. The only thing he provides is a decent average. Every other aspect of his game is below IMO. As far as SS. I like the idea of bringing back Hechavarria. Adams would also be a target as he can play RF until Polanco is ready and after get several starts a week between RF and 1st. Frazier plays 2b everyday.
  
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mouse
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #7 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 10:17am
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I don't think there's any hope of a wild new spending program. They are most likely to add a low-level player or two to compliment what they now have. I suspect they add an outfielder and maybe a shortstop (I would agree with the Hechavarria suggestion), neither of whom will be "name" players. NH doesn't like to pay the premium that a 'name' costs.
  
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pghpaulatl
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #8 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 10:51am
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My thoughts differ, thinking/maybe dreaming but how about Josh Donaldson, JA Happ and Justin Wilson. Why Happ, we need a lefty and he's a proven commodity to make staff better. What's the total cost $50-$60M annually? Probably takes payroll to about $120-$125M for what 3 years or 4? Is it worth the risk. I think so and another thing to consider is that if the Steelers keep stinking it up and the "Nut" spends big what happens to the PR the Bucs get? Does that turn the TV negotiations in Bucs favor.
  
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sdimmick3
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #9 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 12:35pm
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Come on, no way they spend $125m.  I think we have enough history to base this on.  They'll do the minimum and hope for a flash in pan.  Should or could they do it, yes, but they wont.
  
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SammyKhalifa
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #10 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 12:38pm
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sdimmick3 wrote on Oct 4th, 2018 at 12:35pm:
Come on, no way they spend $125m.  I think we have enough history to base this on.  They'll do the minimum and hope for a flash in pan.  Should or could they do it, yes, but they wont.


What would you spend an additional ~$50MM on?
  
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notes34
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #11 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 12:51pm
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SammyKhalifa wrote on Oct 4th, 2018 at 12:38pm:
sdimmick3 wrote on Oct 4th, 2018 at 12:35pm:
Come on, no way they spend $125m.  I think we have enough history to base this on.  They'll do the minimum and hope for a flash in pan.  Should or could they do it, yes, but they wont.


What would you spend an additional ~$50MM on? 

As long as we are dreaming. I could easily spend 50MM on upgrades. Sign Machado and let him play SS. Go get Moustakas or Donaldson to play 3rd. Get the best available LH starter, and a LH reliever.
  
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SammyKhalifa
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #12 - Oct 4th, 2018 at 1:16pm
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Not sure if Machado would be interested in coming here no matter what the money
  
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CTBucco
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #13 - Oct 8th, 2018 at 6:22pm
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If they were going to spend big, and I don't think they will, then I'd spend on a LHSP.  My big spend would be Corbin.  I'd also spend on Happ, but for a shorter term.  I probably would not be willing to spend as much for Keuchel as he will cost.  Get one, and you can then trade Nova.  You'll recover some of the cost of the signee (since you'll have to eat some of his contract to move him).

I'd also sign a LHRP, but I wouldn't spend big for one.  The FAs are all vets with up and down histories aside from Andrew Miller who just had his first not good year.  If I was going to spend on one, he'd probably be the guy, and I'd hope his down year made him (more) affordable.

Pollock is probably the one big splash position player that I'd go for that's not completely unrealistic (Harper, Machado).  It would mean an OFer would be getting moved when Polanco returns. 

With Kang around, I don't know that Donaldson or Moose improves 3B enough to warrant the investment required.  But either of them helps with marketing the team for sure.  I could make the argument for Moose.  Then maybe you could move Moran and/or Kang.  In the end, it depends on whether we can get most of the Kang of '15 & '16 back since he was better than Moose of '18.
  
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Re: Archer/Kela phase 1
Reply #14 - Oct 8th, 2018 at 10:16pm
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CTBucco wrote on Oct 8th, 2018 at 6:22pm:
If they were going to spend big, and I don't think they will, then I'd spend on a LHSP.  My big spend would be Corbin.  I'd also spend on Happ, but for a shorter term.  I probably would not be willing to spend as much for Keuchel as he will cost.  Get one, and you can then trade Nova.  You'll recover some of the cost of the signee (since you'll have to eat some of his contract to move him).

I'd also sign a LHRP, but I wouldn't spend big for one.  The FAs are all vets with up and down histories aside from Andrew Miller who just had his first not good year.  If I was going to spend on one, he'd probably be the guy, and I'd hope his down year made him (more) affordable.

Pollock is probably the one big splash position player that I'd go for that's not completely unrealistic (Harper, Machado).  It would mean an OFer would be getting moved when Polanco returns. 

With Kang around, I don't know that Donaldson or Moose improves 3B enough to warrant the investment required.  But either of them helps with marketing the team for sure.  I could make the argument for Moose.  Then maybe you could move Moran and/or Kang.  In the end, it depends on whether we can get most of the Kang of '15 & '16 back since he was better than Moose of '18.


With Kang around?  What exactly do you expect from a guy that essentially hasn't played MLB in two years and only got a hit in the last series of the year against a pitcher many of us could (I'm being sarcastic, but the Reds pitching is terrible).  I wouldn't expect anything from Kang at all.

I like AJ Pollock a lot and that wouldn't be a bad option.

Pittsburgh isn't going heavy in free agency and push that payroll up to 110 or 120 million.  Not a chance.  As someone said, we have history to speak of here.

Someone brought up Gio as an arm we should target.  That is a big time pass.  People get frustrated with Nova.  Gio is more frustrating.

I keep seeing people bring up Matt Adams.  He has zero interest in ever playing for the Pirates.  This is the pretty strong sense among people who live in Phillipsburg, PA, which is around the corner from me.
  
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