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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) 7/9 vs Nationals (Read 1396 times)
dmetz
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Re: 7/9 vs Nationals
Reply #30 - Jul 13th, 2018 at 10:51am
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Bobster wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 10:20am:
dmetz wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 8:47am:
I'll be crucified for saying this, but the best move would be to trade Meadows now for a nice haul.

He's put up a nice initial batting numbers which is good.  He's very very young, great.

- His BB rate is too low, even in the minors.  He's a batting average dependent hitter.

-his contact rate is good but not that good, even in the minors

- His speed doesn't play into a SB threat

- His defense looks to be bad, something that isn't likely to improve much even at his age.  Also since he's playing positions he's always played.  His defense makes him a future corner OF, not a CF.  Also, his arm is not good.   

-He still is carrying around a history of lower body injuries, things that tend to keep coming up. 

I'd punt while there's top value.  I think he's a bad bet to be a top-end type talent and this team is a couple years away from really competing (assuming it will at all).      

If everything you're saying about Meadows is true, what team is going to give a nice haul to acquire him?

Also, I don't see him as weak defensively. I know the metrics show that. But I put little faith in them. His entire MLB career in the OF consists of just 37 games without a position to call his own. The same metrics I saw also showed Pedro Alvarez to be a plus defender in 2013 with his 27 errors. And while Moran is serviceable at best at 3B, those metrics show him as being 3-4 times worse than Pedro ever was in his worst seasons. They also show Mercer as being awful defensively. But the eye test says Mercer doesn't have great range but is very steady as SS.

What I love about baseball is that you either produce or you don't. But now we have ultra modern metrics whose calculation formulas are too intricate to be understood by anyone but those who calculate them and which tell us that even players who appear to be hitting and fielding well aren't really. I prefer to go by what I see on the field. And I wouldn't trade Meadows who, if he's worthy of the nice haul you expect, would be greatly missed.


My thoughts are this:  I totally agree you can throw the defensive metrics out the window especially with a tiny sample.   I'm just going by my eyes and noting that the metrics do absolutely hate him so far as well.

Also to note, they don't all hate mercer.  He's below average this year, -1.9 UZR/150 and trending downward over the last 3.  Over his career he's been just a hair below average.   He's not a terrible defender now, by the stats, his range is deteriorating which seems to match up with what we all see with our eyes.  Moran having zero range and Mercer having poor range, is kinda a bad combination over there, but that's another story.

I would also add that Pedro was always a bad 3bman by UZR before he got the yips, (which made him historically bad).   Pedro was averaging ~ -4.0 UZR/150 per year at 3b before he got the yips.   that's a bad fielder.   

So the UZR metrics, at least,  on those two particular players seem to pretty accurately depict fan observation. 
---------------------------------------------------
So why would we get a nice return for meadows?  Because his future isn't written in stone.  Because other teams could completely disagree and feel that his lowish walk rate isn't that important and that his defense is going to be fine or perhaps that his power numbers will develop well.    At 22-23 and having good bat to ball skills, We're selling on big-upside and cost controlled years.  That's the value of gambling and selling him now instead of waiting for what may be a pedestrian first couple years.   The longer you wait, the more clarity for all parties. 

I think the only way we're going to get the talent we need is to start taking chances.   If we're not willing to sign anyone (we aren't), and we aren't particularly good at drafting (we haven't been) and we aren't particularly good at development (doesn't seem like we have been)  we've got to turn some big trades ... and win them.   

We've got to gamble.   
  
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Re: 7/9 vs Nationals
Reply #31 - Jul 13th, 2018 at 12:10pm
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Unfortunately, to that list of things we can't do, you should add, 'win trades.' I guess we do better there than elsewhere, but it's one of those photo finish sort of things.

What Meadows has is 'promise.' He has potential. There's the hope, and every team seems to love that. So I agree - he is one we could get something for.
  
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Re: 7/9 vs Nationals
Reply #32 - Jul 13th, 2018 at 12:39pm
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dmetz wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 10:51am:
Bobster wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 10:20am:
dmetz wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 8:47am:
I'll be crucified for saying this, but the best move would be to trade Meadows now for a nice haul.

He's put up a nice initial batting numbers which is good.  He's very very young, great.

- His BB rate is too low, even in the minors.  He's a batting average dependent hitter.

-his contact rate is good but not that good, even in the minors

- His speed doesn't play into a SB threat

- His defense looks to be bad, something that isn't likely to improve much even at his age.  Also since he's playing positions he's always played.  His defense makes him a future corner OF, not a CF.  Also, his arm is not good.   

-He still is carrying around a history of lower body injuries, things that tend to keep coming up. 

I'd punt while there's top value.  I think he's a bad bet to be a top-end type talent and this team is a couple years away from really competing (assuming it will at all).      

If everything you're saying about Meadows is true, what team is going to give a nice haul to acquire him?

Also, I don't see him as weak defensively. I know the metrics show that. But I put little faith in them. His entire MLB career in the OF consists of just 37 games without a position to call his own. The same metrics I saw also showed Pedro Alvarez to be a plus defender in 2013 with his 27 errors. And while Moran is serviceable at best at 3B, those metrics show him as being 3-4 times worse than Pedro ever was in his worst seasons. They also show Mercer as being awful defensively. But the eye test says Mercer doesn't have great range but is very steady as SS.

What I love about baseball is that you either produce or you don't. But now we have ultra modern metrics whose calculation formulas are too intricate to be understood by anyone but those who calculate them and which tell us that even players who appear to be hitting and fielding well aren't really. I prefer to go by what I see on the field. And I wouldn't trade Meadows who, if he's worthy of the nice haul you expect, would be greatly missed.


My thoughts are this:  I totally agree you can throw the defensive metrics out the window especially with a tiny sample.   I'm just going by my eyes and noting that the metrics do absolutely hate him so far as well.

Also to note, they don't all hate mercer.  He's below average this year, -1.9 UZR/150 and trending downward over the last 3.  Over his career he's been just a hair below average.   He's not a terrible defender now, by the stats, his range is deteriorating which seems to match up with what we all see with our eyes.  Moran having zero range and Mercer having poor range, is kinda a bad combination over there, but that's another story.

I would also add that Pedro was always a bad 3bman by UZR before he got the yips, (which made him historically bad).   Pedro was averaging ~ -4.0 UZR/150 per year at 3b before he got the yips.   that's a bad fielder.   

So the UZR metrics, at least,  on those two particular players seem to pretty accurately depict fan observation. 
---------------------------------------------------
So why would we get a nice return for meadows?  Because his future isn't written in stone.  Because other teams could completely disagree and feel that his lowish walk rate isn't that important and that his defense is going to be fine or perhaps that his power numbers will develop well.    At 22-23 and having good bat to ball skills, We're selling on big-upside and cost controlled years.  That's the value of gambling and selling him now instead of waiting for what may be a pedestrian first couple years.   The longer you wait, the more clarity for all parties. 

I think the only way we're going to get the talent we need is to start taking chances.   If we're not willing to sign anyone (we aren't), and we aren't particularly good at drafting (we haven't been) and we aren't particularly good at development (doesn't seem like we have been)  we've got to turn some big trades ... and win them.   

We've got to gamble.   


There's some disagreement about Mercer, but it's important to note that the disagreement centers around just how much below average he is defensively at this point.  DRS has him at 12 runs below average.  That's worse than Moran in that particular metric.

I'm sure Mercer is a great guy and a clubhouse leader and he doesn't bat too terribly for a shortstop, but I'm 98% sure the Pirates wouldn't be worse with someone else playing whether it be Newman or Moroff.
  
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Re: 7/9 vs Nationals
Reply #33 - Jul 13th, 2018 at 12:43pm
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Wrathchild wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 12:39pm:
dmetz wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 10:51am:
Bobster wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 10:20am:
dmetz wrote on Jul 13th, 2018 at 8:47am:
I'll be crucified for saying this, but the best move would be to trade Meadows now for a nice haul.

He's put up a nice initial batting numbers which is good.  He's very very young, great.

- His BB rate is too low, even in the minors.  He's a batting average dependent hitter.

-his contact rate is good but not that good, even in the minors

- His speed doesn't play into a SB threat

- His defense looks to be bad, something that isn't likely to improve much even at his age.  Also since he's playing positions he's always played.  His defense makes him a future corner OF, not a CF.  Also, his arm is not good.   

-He still is carrying around a history of lower body injuries, things that tend to keep coming up. 

I'd punt while there's top value.  I think he's a bad bet to be a top-end type talent and this team is a couple years away from really competing (assuming it will at all).      

If everything you're saying about Meadows is true, what team is going to give a nice haul to acquire him?

Also, I don't see him as weak defensively. I know the metrics show that. But I put little faith in them. His entire MLB career in the OF consists of just 37 games without a position to call his own. The same metrics I saw also showed Pedro Alvarez to be a plus defender in 2013 with his 27 errors. And while Moran is serviceable at best at 3B, those metrics show him as being 3-4 times worse than Pedro ever was in his worst seasons. They also show Mercer as being awful defensively. But the eye test says Mercer doesn't have great range but is very steady as SS.

What I love about baseball is that you either produce or you don't. But now we have ultra modern metrics whose calculation formulas are too intricate to be understood by anyone but those who calculate them and which tell us that even players who appear to be hitting and fielding well aren't really. I prefer to go by what I see on the field. And I wouldn't trade Meadows who, if he's worthy of the nice haul you expect, would be greatly missed.


My thoughts are this:  I totally agree you can throw the defensive metrics out the window especially with a tiny sample.   I'm just going by my eyes and noting that the metrics do absolutely hate him so far as well.

Also to note, they don't all hate mercer.  He's below average this year, -1.9 UZR/150 and trending downward over the last 3.  Over his career he's been just a hair below average.   He's not a terrible defender now, by the stats, his range is deteriorating which seems to match up with what we all see with our eyes.  Moran having zero range and Mercer having poor range, is kinda a bad combination over there, but that's another story.

I would also add that Pedro was always a bad 3bman by UZR before he got the yips, (which made him historically bad).   Pedro was averaging ~ -4.0 UZR/150 per year at 3b before he got the yips.   that's a bad fielder.   

So the UZR metrics, at least,  on those two particular players seem to pretty accurately depict fan observation. 
---------------------------------------------------
So why would we get a nice return for meadows?  Because his future isn't written in stone.  Because other teams could completely disagree and feel that his lowish walk rate isn't that important and that his defense is going to be fine or perhaps that his power numbers will develop well.    At 22-23 and having good bat to ball skills, We're selling on big-upside and cost controlled years.  That's the value of gambling and selling him now instead of waiting for what may be a pedestrian first couple years.   The longer you wait, the more clarity for all parties. 

I think the only way we're going to get the talent we need is to start taking chances.   If we're not willing to sign anyone (we aren't), and we aren't particularly good at drafting (we haven't been) and we aren't particularly good at development (doesn't seem like we have been)  we've got to turn some big trades ... and win them.   

We've got to gamble.   


There's some disagreement about Mercer, but it's important to note that the disagreement centers around just how much below average he is defensively at this point.  DRS has him at 12 runs below average.  That's worse than Moran in that particular metric.

I'm sure Mercer is a great guy and a clubhouse leader and he doesn't bat too terribly for a shortstop, but I'm 98% sure the Pirates wouldn't be worse with someone else playing whether it be Newman or Moroff.


I noticed you didn't include S-Rod.  Somewhere along the line the Bucs need to plan for who is going to play short in 2019.  Probably the sooner the better.  since he is in Pittsburgh now I hope the Bucs give Moroff a shot and see what he can do over an extended period of time (at least a couple weeks to show if he can field the position adequately).
  
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